Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Milk Production Jumps 2.3%

 MILK

On top of block cheese falling again Wednesday, milk production is soaring. Production in the top 24 states showed an increase of 2.5% during October. USDA reported milk output at 17.7 billion pounds. Milk production per cow averaged 1,997 pounds, which was 35 pounds per cow above October 2019. Cow numbers are 62,000 head more than a year ago with 17,000 more cows than September. Milk production in the U.S. showed an increase of 2.3%, totaling 18.6 billion pounds. Milk production per cow averaged 1,977 pounds, 37 pounds higher than a year ago. The total number of cows reached 9.39 million head. This was 43,000 more than a year ago and 14,000 head more than the previous month. This is a bearish report as it shows continued growth despite all the events that have taken place so far this year. There were only seven of the top 23 states that slowed milk production declines. The largest percentage decline was in Vermont with a decrease of 5.4% followed by Utah with a decline of 3.7%. Oregon declined 2.3%, Florida declined 1.7%, Arizona was down 1.5%, Georgia was down 0.7% and Washington was down 0.5%. The Class I milk price for December was released at $19.87, an increase of $1.83 from November.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $18.62
6 Month: $17.63
9 Month: $17.34
12 Month: $17.23

CHEESE

Spot milk prices are declining as milk product grows. More extra milk is becoming available as plants are running near capacity. Although many plants are having difficulties keeping sufficient workers in place to handle the milk due to COVID-19 infections, production is generally strong with milk being handled. The difference may be that, due to lower staffing, plants are not reaching out to purchase extra spot milk, which is reducing prices on that milk. A little more interest is being shown for cheese now that prices have fallen substantially. However, they are cautious due to public restrictions being put back in place. Plants are trying to move cheese out as fast as they can.

BUTTER

The slight bounce in price Wednesday is meaningless. Buyers were a bit more aggressive than the sellers. Each day is a different story. More cream is becoming available and will be plentiful through the end of the year. Retail orders are good, as the holiday baking season is here. Many stores are featuring butter to entice consumers into the stores.


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