Monday, November 30, 2020

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Markets Poised for Higher Open

 Opening Calls:

Class III Milk Futures:4 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:Steady to 5 Higher
Butter Futures:1 to 2 Higher

Outside Market Opening Calls:

Corn Futures:Mixed
Soybean Futures:6 to 9 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:4 to 8 Lower

Milk:

The holiday-shortened week has cheese prices moving higher. The test will come this week as to whether the strength is real or just a temporary bounce. Fundamentals have not changed much, but prices seemed to have fallen to a level that is attractive for buyers to not only fill orders but begin rebuilding aging programs. More milk was available for manufacturing last week, which increased dairy product output. Some of the spot milk available carried a double-digit discount. This may not bode well for later December as the holidays approach. USDA will release the October Agricultural Prices report Monday proving prices used in the calculation of income over feed. There is a good possibility there will be another payment under the Dairy Margin Coverage program for those who chose the $9.50 level.

Cheese:

Cheese prices showed increases last week, but due to it only being a three-day week, it was unclear as to the extent of the strength. Barrels only gained back what they lost showing no change from the end of the previous week. The only real strength was in blocks as buyers needed to fill orders. Cheese production increased last week as more milk was available. Some plants were not in the market to purchase any extra milk due to the plant already at full capacity. The price increase may be temporary.

Butter:

There is no change in the butter market. Price may continue to slowly grind lower as the end of the year approaches. Inventory is declining as well as building. They are declining from month to month but building in comparison to the previous year. Inventory is on track to end the year substantially higher than the previous year. The return of demand from the food service industry will be a slow process even with a vaccine.


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