Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Agricultural Prices for May Showed Gains

MILK:

It is interesting to see how quickly the market can turn. The recent strength of cheese prices has resulted in the August Class III contract gaining around $1.00 per cwt over the past two days. Cheese buyers turned aggressive to take advantage of the lower prices. This may continue as buyers who had been buying as needed may step up to purchase more aggressively, rather than take a chance on prices continuing to increase without another price retracement. The May Agricultural Prices report was released today. The average price for corn was $4.64 per bushel, up $0.02 from April and $0.13 higher than May 2024. The supreme/premium hay price was $277.00 per ton, up $25.00 from April and up $1.00 per ton from a year ago. The All-milk price was $21.30, up $0.30 per cwt from April, but down $0.70 from May 2024. The missing price to calculate the income over feed price is the average price for soybean meal and will be released by the FSA on Tuesday morning. The prices in the report indicate that the income over feed price will be higher than it was in April, in light of the soybean meal futures trading sideways for the month. Other prices of interest are the alfalfa hay price, which averaged $191.00 per ton, up $11.00 per ton from April but down $9.00 per ton from a year ago. The average soybean price was $10.40, up $0.20 from April but down $1.50 per bushel from May 2024.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.39
6 Month:	$18.74
9 Month:	$18.55
12 Month:	$18.41

CHEESE:

The block cheese price has increased 12.50 cents over the past four days. The barrel cheese price has increased by 8 cents over the same time. The market has proved itself, which has caused traders to both short-cover and buy Class III futures aggressively. Surprisingly, futures did not increase further than they did due to spot cheese prices exceeding the gains of Friday.

BUTTER:

The butter price moved above the sideways range it has been trading in over the past month. This may trigger greater buying interest as the uptrend may resume. Demand for bulk butter has been improving while retail demand has held steady. Seasonal buying may surface to support the price.

Outside Markets Summary:

September corn closed down 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.0925, November soybeans closed up 2.25 cents at $10.2700 and August soybean meal closed up $.20 per ton at $275.80. September Chicago wheat closed down 2.50 cents at $5.3825. August live cattle closed up $0.58 at $213.88. August crude oil is down $0.41 per barrel at $65.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 276 points at 44,095, with the NASDAQ up 96 points at 20,370.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Increase

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	1 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.95 Higher
DOW JONES:	160 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	34 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.49 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price jumped 10 cents, closing at $1.72 with 12 loads traded. This moves the price back to the highest level since June 17. The barrel cheese price increased 3 cents, closing at $1.6950 with six loads traded. There were nine unfilled bids for blocks remaining with no offers. Barrels had one unfilled bid and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. The dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 59.50 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are 3 cents lower to 37 cents higher, with September showing the greatest gain. The butter price increased 3.75 cents, closing at $2.60 with three loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.25 cent, closing at $1.2525 with one load traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the March contract at 6 cents lower. Butter futures are steady to 3.00 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 1.50 to 3.00 cents higher. USDA will release the May Agricultural Prices report this afternoon, showing the average prices used in the calculation of the income over feed used for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Show Some Optimism in Overnight Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 t 3 Lower
Soybean Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures had an impressive end to last week, with traders deciding the recent increase in underlying cash was sufficient to warrant aggressive buying. The strength in the equity markets may also have had an influence as this may keep and improve demand. Consumers may maintain or increase their purchases of dairy products as the year progresses. The nearby June contract will move very little as Tuesday is the last trading day for the contract. USDA will release the May Agricultural Prices report today, providing average prices used in calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The Planted Acreage and the Quarterly Grain Stocks reports will also be released.

CHEESE:

The recent increase in cheese prices may be sufficient to bring more buyers into the market, maintaining the upward trend. Buying should increase as seasonal demand improves and buyers prepare for demand later in the year. Increased milk availability for manufacturers keeps a sufficient supply of cheese available to the market.

BUTTER:

The butter price has been in a range and has not seen aggressive buyer interest recently. Bulk butter has seen better demand recently, but it has not been sufficient to trigger aggressive interest from buyers. Summer weather has had a minor impact on the cream supply, but not enough to tighten the market.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Positive Day for Class III Milk Futures

MILK:

It was a positive day for Class III futures with the August contract reaching limit up at one point. Traders had a substantial change in attitude after cheese prices increased for the 3^rd consecutive day. This strength may bring more buyers into the market as they believe price increases will continue next week. Higher milk production and the potential for production to remain above a year ago throughout the rest of the year may limit the upside potential. Rabobank forecasts a strong second half of the year. Demand generally increases in the second half of the year, and exports are expected to remain strong. The industry is not expecting a lack of milk supply, but it is anticipating an increase in demand.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.26
6 Month:	$18.56
9 Month:	$18.41
12 Month:	$18.31

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks declined by 4.50 cents, with 70 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.6170. Barrels gained 0.75 cent, with 13 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.6405. Dry whey gained 1.50 cents, with 10 loads traded. It was a surprise to see traders buy futures as aggressively as they had today. Mixed spot cheese prices for the week would not suggest the strength today. However, three consecutive days of gains turned traders bullish for the near term.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter gained 6.25 cents, with 15 loads traded. The weekly average price was $2.5360. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined a penny, with two loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.2520. The butter price has been in a sideways range for the past month. The expectation is for the price to resume the uptrend as the summer progresses and demand improves.

Outside Markets Summary:

July corn closed up 8.00 cents per bushel at $4.1750, November soybeans closed up 8.25 cents at $10.2475 and July soybean meal closed up $.20 per ton at $271.10. September Chicago wheat closed up 4.00 cents at $5.4075. August live cattle closed up $4.10 at $213.30. August crude oil is up $0.28 per barrel at $65.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 432 points at 43,819, with the NASDAQ up 106 points at 20,273. 

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Posts Another Day of Gains

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	7 Higher
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.80 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$3.10 Higher
DOW JONES:	490 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	102 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.17 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.62 with nine loads traded. The barrel cheese price gained 2.75 cents, closing at $1.6650 with one load traded. There were six unfilled bids for blocks and one unfilled bid for barrels remaining at the close of trading. No offers remained. The dry whey price increased 0.75 cent, closing at 58.50 cents with two loads traded. Class III futures are 2 to 57 cents higher. This moves the August contract back above $18.00. The butter price increased by 2.50 cents, closing at $2.5625 with two loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.25 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 13 cents higher in the September contract, which is the only contract that has been traded. Butter futures are 0.02 to 4.90 higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.60 cents higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Remain Cautious Over Cash Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Futures:	5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Traders are uncertain whether cheese prices have found support or if it is just immediate buying interest absorbing the volume of block cheese coming to the spot market. Once those needs are filled, prices could see further weakness. Buying interest could improve seasonally, but there is sufficient milk available, with milk output continuing to outpace last year. Dairy demand has yet to improve to absorb the increased milk production. Cow numbers are expected to continue to increase as farms keep barns full, production strong and provide cash flow for the operation.

CHEESE:

The substantial trading volume of block cheese this week has provided some hope that buyers are turning more aggressive. This may be positive as the summer continues, or it may limit the upside price potential later in the year. If more cheese is purchased at lower prices, there may be less needed to purchase later in the year, limiting the upside price potential.

BUTTER:

The butter price seems to be moving in a sideways pattern for the time being. Butter inventory is below a year ago and may support the market. However, the upside may be limited unless demand improves, and the cream supply tightens.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Prices Still Hold a Discount

MILK:

Traders have been cautiously covering short positions or are buying into the market. Class III milk futures increased but were not able to hold the highs of the day. The July contract moved above $17.00. The volume of block cheese traded this week might indicate that buyers see the current price is at a level where they are willing to purchase what is offered. The recent hot weather has impacted milk production, but it remains strong overall. Sufficient milk is available for demand. Spot milk prices in the Central region show Class III milk ranging from $8.00 under class to flat class. That is a wide price variation and one that has been seen for a few weeks. Generally, spot milk prices do not have that wide of a variation. Milk output in the West is declining, but manufacturers indicate they have sufficient supply available from patrons and the spot market.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.85
6 Month:	$18.19
9 Month:	$18.13
12 Month:	$18.09

CHEESE:

Buyers have been more active in the spot market for block cheese. The low price and seasonal buying interest may have spurred the activity. Cheese supplies are sufficient for demand, but buyers will look ahead to increased demand later in the year. It is too early to determine the level of demand that will surface, which may keep buyer interest somewhat subdued. If substantial cheese buying takes place due to low prices, it may limit the upside potential later this year as buyers will be holding more inventory.

BUTTER:

The cream supply remains sufficient for demand, but supply is decreasing due to the hot weather experienced in many areas. International demand remains strong as the U.S. price is about $1.00 below the world price. Domestic demand is steady to lighter. The butter is moving in a sideways pattern as buyers and sellers are comfortable with the current price.

Outside Markets Summary:

July corn closed down .75 cent per bushel at $4.0950, November soybeans closed down 2.00 cents at $10.1650 and July soybean meal closed down $5.10 per ton at $270.90. September Chicago wheat closed down 7.75 cents at $5.3675. August live cattle closed up $0.23 at $209.20. August crude oil is up $0.30 per barrel at $65.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 404 points at 43,387, with the NASDAQ up 194 points at 20,168.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Post Gains

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	Steady
SOYBEANS:	1 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.20 Lower
DOW JONES:	358 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	169 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.54 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained steady at $1.61, with 17 loads traded. There were three unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. The barrel cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.6375 with one load traded, one unfilled bid and one uncovered offer remaining. The dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 57.75 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 2 cents lower to 20 cents higher. The butter price increased 1.75 cents, closing at $2.5375 with seven loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.25 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 6 cents lower to 9 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.50 cents lower to 2.17 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.70 to 1.25 cents higher.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 26

In California, milk production is seasonally declining, but contacts say output is up compared to one year ago. Spot milk availability is tightening as demand remains strong for all Classes of milk. 

Warm summer temperatures in Arizona are negatively impacting cow comfort and milk production. Contacts in Arizona report steady demand for all Classes of milk. 

Milk production is also declining in New Mexico amid high temperatures. Class I demand is seasonally light, while demand is steady for all other Classes. 

In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado, milk output is up from a year ago but is steady to lighter week-to-week. Manufacturers in the region say spot milk is available to meet current processing needs. Class II demand is strengthening, but is steady for Classes I, III, and IV. 

Cream remains available in the West. Butter makers are utilizing available cream volumes to run busy production schedules.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Strong Overnight Gains

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	10 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures posted double-digit gains overnight. It has been some time since strength has been seen in the night market. The combination of stronger cheese prices on Wednesday and a friendly cold storage report provides support. Traders will be cautious as the market needs to prove itself before there could be an upswing in prices. Underlying cash prices will need to increase more than just one day or even a few days before traders would buy futures aggressively. The cash market will be the driver of the price direction.

CHEESE:

The cold storage report showed cheese stocks increasing as expected, but inventory remained below a year ago. This is supportive as the first five months of the year have not seen inventory build as much as had been anticipated, even though milk production was higher than a year ago. Inventory generally builds during the first half of the year and then declines through the end of the year. Cheese inventory may remain low the rest of the year.

BUTTER:

May butter inventory was 5% below a year ago. This may provide support for the spot market as buyers may become more aggressive, similar to the April report. Strong butter production had not been able to move supplies above a year ago over the past two months. Demand is steady to higher and may continue the pattern of lower stocks.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - May Inventory Increased But Remained Below a Year Ago

MILK:

Traders were not convinced that the increase in cheese prices indicated a change in trend. The spot market will need to prove itself before traders will short-cover and buy new long positions. Underlying cash prices will need to move higher consistently for a few days before traders become aggressive buyers. Milk production is variable but holding strong for this time of year. Milk component values are slipping but remain higher than they have been historically. Strong milk output may limit the upside price potential for the foreseeable future. Lower milk prices are not expected to increase culling. Grain prices continue to decline, making it less expensive to feed cows and to hopefully improve their milk production. It is more profitable to hold a lower-producing cow and feed them less expensive feed than to purchase a high-priced heifer.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.86
6 Month:	$18.18
9 Month:	$18.12
12 Month:	$18.08

CHEESE:

The May Cold Storage report showed American cheese stocks increasing by 5.6 million pounds, totaling 807.4 million pounds. Stocks are 1% below a year ago. Swiss cheese inventory increased by 229,000 pounds, totaling 22,746 million pounds and 5% above a year ago. Other cheese inventory increased 3.7 million pounds, totaling 582.3 million pounds and 2% below May 2024. Total cheese stocks increased by 9.0 million pounds, totaling 1.413 billion pounds. This was 2% below May 2024.

BUTTER:

Butter inventory increased 24.7 million pounds, totaling 361.6 million pounds. Inventory was 5% below May 2024. The fact that stocks have not been able to exceed year-earlier levels indicates strong demand and the potential for higher prices. However, buyers may not react substantially to the lower inventory compared to a year ago, but it may provide support as it did after the previous cold storage report.

Outside Markets Summary:

July corn closed down 6.00 cents per bushel at $4.1025, July soybeans closed down 21.50 cents at $10.2525 and July soybean meal closed down $4.50 per ton at $276.00. September Chicago wheat closed down 7.50 cents at $5.4450. August live cattle closed down $0.58 at $208.98. August crude oil is up $.55 per barrel at $64.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 107 points at 42,982, with the NASDAQ up 61 points at 19,974.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Bounce

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Lower
SOYBEANS:	20 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.10 Lower
DOW JONES:	192 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	30 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.93 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.50 cents, closing at $1.61 with 17 loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 1.25 cents, closing at $1.6275 with six loads traded. Finally, buyers decided the price was low enough to buy supplies for later demand. The dry whey price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at 56.75 cents with six loads traded. The increase in cheese prices did not trigger aggressive buying interest from traders. Class III futures are 16 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price declined 1.50 cents, closing at $2.52, with three loads traded. Nonfat dry milk price remained unchanged at $1.25 with one load traded. Class IV futures have not yet traded. Butter futures are 1.65 to 3.67 cents lower. Dry whey futures to 0.07 cents lower to 0.40 cent higher. USDA will release the May Cold Storage report this afternoon.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - May Cold Storage Report To Be Released Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Lower

MILK:

We would like to think that milk futures are oversold, but the dairy futures market is not the same as other markets, as milk futures reflect what takes place in the underlying cash market. Hopefully, the May Cold Storage report will provide some support to offset the bearishness since the milk production report. Traders have little to get excited about as the underlying cash cheese prices have fallen near the lows from March. Milk production has not shown signs of slowing, keeping sufficient milk available to the market and the potential for it to remain that way. Overnight trade showed further pressure on milk futures as traders see little hope for much upside near term.

CHEESE:

Buyers have been willing to purchase cheese but only on price weakness. The large volume of blocks traded on Tuesday indicates cheese manufacturers want to move supply to limit inventory build at the plant level. They have no intention of holding inventory for higher prices.

BUTTER:

The cold storage report will be watched for the level of butter stocks compared to a year ago. If inventory continues to run below a year ago, it may trigger increased buying interest on the spot butter market.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cattle Slaughter Declines in May

MILK:

Class III milk futures continue to slide lower following the cheese prices. This will continue unless buyers aggressively step up to the plate. The bearishness of the milk production report continues to influence the market. Strong milk production indicates a sufficient supply for demand, eliminating the concern over supply. Hot weather during the summer may reduce milk output, but higher cow numbers and production per cow will maintain a sufficient supply even with a weather impact. Dairy cattle slaughter declined in May, according to the Livestock Slaughter report. There were 196,700 dairy cattle slaughtered. This was 10,500 fewer than April and 19,400 fewer than May 2024. This is the 21st consecutive month with year-over-year declines in slaughter.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.82
6 Month:	$18.13
9 Month:	$18.12
12 Month:	$18.11

CHEESE:

Block cheese price fell to the lowest level since March 18. If the price declines by more than 2 cents, the price will move back to the level of April 2024. The barrel cheese price is back to the lowest level since March 21. Hopefully, prices will recover from these levels as the summer progresses and demand improves. Buyers should purchase for demand later in the year.

BUTTER:

The price has increased over the past two days, but the strength was limited. USDA will release the May Cold Storage report on Wednesday. The trade will watch to see whether the butter supply will continue to fall below a year ago. The previous cold storage report showed butter stocks were 7% below a year ago and sparked aggressive buying interest. Hopefully, we will see a repeat of that.

Outside Markets Summary:

July corn closed down 3 cents per bushel at $4.1625, July soybeans closed down 12 cents at $10.4675 and July soybean meal closed down $1.90 per ton at $280.50. September Chicago wheat closed down 17.50 cents at $5.5200. August live cattle closed up $0.18 at $209.55. August crude oil is down $3.50 per barrel at $65.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 507 points at 43,089, with the NASDAQ up 282 points at 19,913.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Lower
SOYBEANS:	9 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.80 Lower
DOW JONES:	488 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	287 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$4.11 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 5.50 cents, closing at $1.5950 with 25 loads traded. Buyers' needs were satisfied with no unfilled bids remaining. There were two uncovered offers at higher prices, with the sellers unwilling to lower their offers. The barrel price declined 4.25 cents, closing at $1.6150 with five loads traded. There were five unfilled bids at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price gained 0.25 cent, closing at 57.25 with two loads traded. Surprisingly, Class III futures are not under further pressure, with contracts ranging from 26 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The April and May contracts show the only gains. The butter price gained a penny, closing at $2.5350 with no loads traded. There were two unfilled bids and two uncovered offers remaining at the close. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined a penny to $1.25 with one load traded. Class IV futures are 1 to 18 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.25 to 2.50 higher. Dry whey futures are 0.70 cent lower to 1.00 cents higher.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders See No Reason To Be Bullish

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	7 to 9 Lower

MILK:

Class III futures have moved back to the contract lows in the July and August months. This has dimmed the outlook for milk prices significantly, and with the bearish implication of the milk production report, it may be difficult to see milk prices regain the losses anytime soon, or if at all. Hot weather will impact milk output, but it may not be sufficient to tighten the market. USDA will release the May Cold Storage report on Wednesday and could provide some support if inventory levels remain below a year ago.

CHEESE:

The lower cheese prices should increase buyer interest, but they may not be aggressive if cheese remains readily available. Demand should improve seasonally but will need to exceed last year's level to provide substantial support. Buyers are not concerned about supply at the present time as cheese production is strong.

BUTTER:

The butter market has support, but the price uptrend will not be without retracements. The buying interest on Monday may follow through today as the price moved low enough to cause buyers to step back into the market. Churning remains active, but cream supplies are showing signs of tightening.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Puts Pressure on the Market

MILK:

It was another dismal day for Class III futures as the weakness of blocks resulted in some contracts posting double-digit losses. Not only did the weakness of blocks put pressure on the market, but also the bearish implications of the May Milk Production report released on Friday. Milk output being 1.6% higher than the previous year for two consecutive months, and continued growth in cow numbers, keeps a bearish attitude in the market. There were only seven of the top 24 states that showed declines from May 2024. The largest decline was in Illinois with a decrease of 4.0%. Washington declined 3.3%; Oregon was down 2.3%; California was down 1.8%; Arizona declined 0.5%; Minnesota was down 0.4%, and Wisconsin was down 0.1%. Kansas showed the largest increase at 15.7%, followed by South Dakota with a gain of 9.5%. Texas gained 8.5%; Georgia was 7.9% higher, with Idaho up 6.0%. All the other states gained less than 4.0%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.95
6 Month:	$18.21
9 Month:	$18.18
12 Month:	$18.14

CHEESE:

The steady barrel price does not indicate that the price has found a bottom. It is just that no one needed to accomplish business today. One would hope that prices would be low enough to increase the interest of buyers to purchase supplies for later demand. However, strong cheese production and a plentiful milk supply may keep buyers purchasing on an as-needed basis.

BUTTER:

The increase in the butter price today could give the impression that the price has moved low enough to spur buying interest. Retain demand is steady to higher while food service demand is lower than a year ago. Cream supplies are sufficient, keeping most churns running on full schedules. However, the volume of cream is beginning to show a slight decrease.

Outside Markets Summary:

July corn closed down 9.50 cents per bushel at $4.1925, July soybeans closed down 9.25 cents at $10.5875 and July soybean meal closed down $1.70 per ton at $282.40. September Chicago wheat closed down 14.00 cents at $5.6950. August live cattle closed down $0.45 at $209.38. August crude oil is down $6.58 per barrel at $67.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 375 points at 42,582, with the NASDAQ up 184 points at 19,631.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Continued Lower

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	10 Lower
SOYBEANS:	10 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.52 Lower
DOW JONES:	233 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	150 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$3.31 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Block cheese could not find support with buyers still holding out for lower prices. The price declined 1.50 cents, closing at $1.65 with two loads traded. The barrel price remained steady at $1.6575 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 57.00 cents with no loads traded. The weakness of blocks put further pressure on Class III futures, with contracts unchanged to 21 cents lower. The butter price gained 2.50 cents, closing at $2.5250 with three loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.26 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are steady to 5 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.75 to 3.32 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.35 to 0.52 cents lower.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Have a Negative Bias

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The May Milk Production report would suggest milk futures would be under pressure to begin the week. Milk production was 1.6% above a year ago and matched April's increase. Cow numbers continue to increase, indicating farmers are holding onto cows and doing a good job of getting more milk out of them, with production per cow up 7 pounds. This should keep sufficient milk available for bottling and manufacturing, and little concern over supply. Hot weather is impacting milk output in many areas, but the impact is less due to advancements in cooling technology.

CHEESE:

Traders will focus on whether cheese prices are low enough to increase the buying interest from end users. Buyers have been holding back as sellers offered cheese to the spot market at lower prices. Strong milk production will keep sufficient milk available for manufacturing, eliminating concern over supply.

BUTTER:

The butter price may have declined sufficiently to increase buying interest from end-users. Demand is reported to be steady. Inventory in April was 7% below a year ago, which has prompted manufacturing to freeze butter for later demand in the anticipation of higher prices.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - May Milk Production Increases 1.6%

MILK:

It was a holiday-shortened week, but it was not kind to milk futures. The underlying cash prices eroded substantially, taking milk futures down with them. The July Class III contract is down to the lowest level since April 28. Class III futures closed mixed for the week despite the decline of butter and nonfat dry milk. The USDA released the May Milk Production report, showing milk production in the top 24 states up 1.7% from May 2024. Milk output per cow was 7 pounds higher, averaging 2,125 pounds. The number of cows on farms totaled 9.00 million head, 118,000 more than May 2024 and 6,000 head more than April. Milk production in the country increased by 1.6%, with production per cow up 7 pounds to 2,110. The total number of cows in the country was 9.45 million head, 5,000 head more than in April and 114,000 more than in May 2024. Cow numbers for April were revised to 9.44 million head, 15,000 head more than what was reported in April. The revision showed the increase in April was 20,000 head compared to March. This will limit the upside price potential for milk as buyers see no reason to become concerned over the milk supply.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.13
6 Month:	$18.37
9 Month:	$18.32
12 Month:	$18.26

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks fell 17.25 cents with 36 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.7225. Barrels fell 17.75 cents with 6 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.7269. Dry whey gained 1.75 cents with 10 loads traded. The weekly average price was 55.44 cents. The block price has declined to the lowest level since April 4. Barrels are at the lowest price since March 31.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 7.00 cents with 31 loads traded. The weekly average price was $2.5494. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.75 cent with seven loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.2688. The bearish milk production report may keep some pressure on the butter market as buyers will be less concerned over a tighter milk supply and lower component values.

Outside Markets Summary:

July corn closed down 4.75 cents per bushel at $4.2875, July soybeans closed down 6.75 cents at $10.6800 and July soybean meal closed down $.80 per ton at $284.10. July Chicago wheat closed down 6.50 cents at $5.6775. August live cattle closed down $1.85 at $209.83. August crude oil is up $0.45 per barrel at $73.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 35 points at 42,207, with the NASDAQ down 99 points at 19,447.

May Milk Production in the United States up 1.6 Percent

May Milk Production up 1.7 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during May totaled 19.1 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from May 2024. April revised production, at 18.6 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from April 2024. The April revision represented an increase of 17 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,125 pounds for May, 7 pounds above May 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.00 million head, 118,000 head more than May 2024, and 6,000 head more than April 2025.   

May Milk Production in the United States up 1.6 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during May totaled 19.9 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from May 2024.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,110 pounds for May, 7 pounds above May 2024.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.45 million head, 114,000 head more than May 2024, and 5,000 head more than April 2025. 

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 25

June milk production in California is trending downward thus far. Although daytime temperatures in the state have heated up, contacts note that nighttime temperatures on the cooler side helped decreases in milk production be less pronounced. That said, some processors note milk intakes are above anticipated volumes. Some handlers note June 2025 year-over-year milk output is up. Processing space is tighter in the Central Valley due to some unplanned downtime at manufacturing facilities. Class I, II, III, and IV demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in Arizona is lighter as summer temperatures take hold more. Demands for all Classes are steady. 

In New Mexico, milk production is lighter. All Class demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in the Pacific Northwest is ticking down. However, handlers state milk intakes are steady compared to anticipated volumes this week. Class I demand is lighter as more educational institutions break for summer. Class II, III, and IV demands are steady. 

Milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado varies from steady to lighter. Some handlers indicate milk volumes are up from this time a year ago. Manufacturers indicate milk volumes are in good balance with processing capacities. Class II demand is stronger. Class I, III, and IV demands are steady. 

Contacts convey availability of cream loads have not changed much since last week. Cream demand is steady for the most part. The bottom end of the All-Classes cream multiples range moved slightly higher. Condensed skim milk availability and demand are steady.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese and Butter Show Continued Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Lower
SOYBEANS:	8 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.55 Lower
DOW JONES:	32 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	129 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.04 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 2.50 cents, closing at $1.6650 with seven loads traded. There were six unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining at the close, possibly suggesting the price may be down near attractive levels where buyers might become more aggressive. The barrel cheese price declined 3.25 cents, closing at $1.6575 with four loads traded. There were five unfilled bids and 21 uncovered offers remaining. The dry whey price gained 2.25 cents, closing at 57.00 cents with two loads traded. Class III futures tried to hold early gains, but the weakness of cheese took away the strength. Class III futures are 16 cents lower to 1 cent higher. The butter price declined 2.75 cents, closing at $2.50 with 19 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 2 cents, closing at $1.26 with one load traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.02 cent higher to 3.35 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.50 to 1.52 cents higher. USDA will release the May Milk Production report today. I estimate milk production up 1.4% from a year ago, with cow numbers up 3,000 head from April.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - May Milk Production Report This Afternoon

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	3 to 6 Lower

MILK:

Traders do not seem to be excited over cheese prices finding a bottom. It had been anticipated that the lower prices would increase buyer interest, but that has not yet been the case. There is a sufficient supply of cheese available to the market. Manufacturing plants are moving supplies to the market rather than holding and building inventory. It is the first day of summer and hotter weather is in store for many areas, which will have an impact on milk production and component levels. The May Milk Production report will be released this afternoon. Milk production is expected to be higher than a year ago. I estimate production to be 1.4% higher than a year ago and cow numbers to be 3,000 head more than in April.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may struggle again today as buyers will hold back to see if sellers remain aggressive. The price is not low enough to cause buyers to turn aggressive. They have a sufficient supply on hand for immediate needs and are not concerned about supply later in the year.

BUTTER:

The recent price retracement in butter may be sufficient to increase the buying interest. Retail butter demand is steady to stronger, and the price is expected to trend higher. The cream supply is not as abundant as it has been, and hotter weather will reduce the butterfat component of milk.

Reformulated milk prices take effect

June is National Dairy Month, a time to celebrate dairy producers while recognizing the challenges they face on the horizon.

U.S. milk production rose for the fourth consecutive month in April, up 1.5% year over year. This growth has been driven by improved producer margins and expanded processing capacity. However, challenges loom for producers as strong beef prices have reduced the availability of replacement heifers. As a result, many dairy producers are holding onto older, less efficient cows that would typically be culled. This could lead to longer-term productivity issues if herds are not refreshed with replacement heifers.

Concerns over Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have largely faded into the background, despite its continued prevalence and predicted heightened lethality during excessive heat. Idaho currently leads the nation in reported cases in the last 30 days, but the impact on producers has been less severe compared to the initial outbreak, with milk production continuing to rise. In California, milk production has steadily improved each month following a particularly challenging HPAI outbreak in late 2024.

The Federal Milk Marketing Order reform went into effect on June 1, bringing significant changes for western dairies. Key updates include increased processor make allowances, Class III payments now being derived solely from block cheddar prices, and an increase in butterfat recovery levels for the Class III formula. While designed to create greater transparency across the pricing system, for most western producers, these changes are expected to result in smaller milk checks. Some of these losses may be offset in December when component levels will be standardized in milk pricing formulas.

Profitability

June 18, 2025

Dairy: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Dairy margins have improved over the past year due to expanded processing capacity, stronger milk prices and lower feed costs, but reforms to milk pricing formulas are likely to hurt prices received by western dairies.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	1 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	Unchanged
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.50
DOW JONES:	114 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	66 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.19 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 6.50 cents, closing at $1.69 with five loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 8 cents, closing at $1.69 with one load traded. Buyers continue to lower their bids as the sellers want to move their supply. The market is unable to find a bottom. The dry whey price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at 54.75 with seven loads traded. Class III futures are being hit hard, with futures 3 to 36 cents lower. All contracts are now below $19.00 with the July contract below $18.00. The butter price fell 5 cents, closing at $2.5275 with six loads traded. There were two unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.50 cents, closing at $1.28 with four loads traded. Class IV futures are 15 cents lower to 7 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.50 to 6.00 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.32 to 1.25 cents lower.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Search for Price Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Trading activity is expected to be light ahead of spot trading as traders are uncertain about spot prices. It was anticipated that the lower cheese prices would have found aggressive buyer interest at these levels, but that has not been the case. Increased cheese production due to more milk moving to the vat has increased the supply. Plants want to limit their inventory and move it to the market as needed. USDA will release the May Milk Production report on Friday. It is expected to show higher milk production than the previous year. The markets will be closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday.

CHEESE:

Buyers are willing to purchase cheese but only at their price. There has been no interest in and little need to bid higher to obtain cheese for immediate demand or build aging programs. Cheese inventory remains below a year ago, but buyers are not concerned about supply.

BUTTER:

The decline of the butter price has not changed the trend. Buyers are expected to remain aggressive even though sellers offer substantial supply to the market. Demand is steady to stronger, and buyers are looking ahead to the demand later this year.