Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - April Class III Price Was $17.48

MILK:

Class III futures drifted higher in light trading activity. Traders do not believe milk prices will increase anytime soon. Mixed cash prices and limited activity allowed the market to find some support.

The April Federal Order class prices were announced today. The Class II price was $19.22, down $0.90 from March and down $2.01 from April 2024. The Class III price was $17.48. down $1.14 from March, but up $1.98 from a year ago. The Class IV price was $17.92, down $0.29 from March and down $2.19 from April 2024.

The USDA released the March Agricultural Prices report containing the average prices for many commodities. The corn, premium/supreme hay, and the All-milk price are used to calculate the income over feed price used in the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The average corn price was $4.57 per bushel, down $0.01 from February, but up $0.21 from March 2024. The premium/supreme hay price averaged $242.00 per ton in March, down $1.00 from February and down $29.00 per ton from March 2024. The All-milk price was $22.00 per cwt, down $1.60 from February, but up $1.40 from March 2024. The average soybean meal price is not in this report but will be released by the FSA on Thursday morning. That is the missing price needed to determine the income over feed price. Other prices of interest are the alfalfa hay price at $157.00 per ton, up $4.00 per ton from February, but down $28.00 from a year ago. The average soybean price was $10.20, the same as it was in February, but down $1.60 per bushel from March 2024.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.91
6 Month:	$18.09
9 Month:	$18.08
12 Month:	$18.05

CHEESE:

Spot prices were mixed as buyers and sellers took care of business as needed. Buyers have little concern over the supply, remaining unaggressive in the market. Sellers continue to offer cheese to the market to move the supply rather than let it build up at the plant level. Spot milk prices remain low, with prices as much as $7.00 below class.

BUTTER:

Buyers took advantage of the price decline to step up more aggressively. Unfortunately, there were not enough sellers to satisfy all of the buyer interest, with eight unfilled bids remaining at the close of spot trading. The aggressive buying interest will be limited due to plentiful butter supplies.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 5.25 cents per bushel at $4.7550, July soybeans closed down 8.25 cents at $10.4450 and July soybean meal closed down $.20 per ton at $298.00. July Chicago wheat closed up 5.25 cents at $5.3075. June live cattle closed down $1.80 at $208.40. June crude oil is down $2.19 per barrel at $58.23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 142 points at 40,669, with the NASDAQ down 15 points at 17,446.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - The Butter Price Rebounds

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	7 Higher
SOYBEANS:	9 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.95 Lower
DOW JONES:	127 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	180 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.98 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.73 with five loads traded. The barrel cheese price slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.70 with seven loads traded. There was only an offer for a load of barrels remaining at the close. The dry whey price decreased 0.75 cent, closing at 49.75 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are steady to 14 cents higher with light trading activity. The butter price rebounded, gaining 5.50 cents and closing at $2.2950 with four loads traded. There were eight unfilled bids remaining at the close of spot trading, suggesting higher prices on Thursday. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 1.25 cents, closing at $1.1750 with eight loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.50 cent lower to 0.65 cent higher as traders are not buying into the strength of the cash price. Dry whey futures are unchanged. The April Federal Order class prices will be released, and USDA will release the March Agricultural Prices reports this afternoon.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Will Wait for Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	6 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

May is the lead contract month. The May contract is nearly half-priced and will decline in volatility over the next two weeks. The April Federal Order Class Prices will be announced today. The trade anticipates a Class III price of $17.45 and a Class IV price of $17.96. These prices certainly are nothing to get excited about. The current futures do not look much different through the rest of the year. Sufficient milk supply and current demand do not indicate higher milk prices anytime soon. Farm expansions are taking place even though heifer supplies are tight, and prices are extremely high. There are no signs of milk production slowing down as farmers try to increase production to make up for lower prices. USDA will release the March Agricultural Prices report today, providing prices for income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to continue to chop around, showing little direction. Cheese production is increasing, keeping the market sufficiently supplied with product. Cheese buyers have no concern over supply, leaving them unaggressive in the market.

BUTTER:

The price falling to a multi-year low does not bode well for higher prices anytime soon. However, the stage may be set up for higher prices later in the year if the market follows a similar pattern to 2023. Cream supplies should decrease over the next few months as schools close and warmer weather impacts the butterfat content in the milk.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Limited Volatility

MILK:

It was another day of limited volatility but higher trading activity than on Monday. It will take larger price swings in underlying cash to create significant movement in milk futures. Traders have become accustomed to prices moving erratically and are not anxious to buy or sell milk futures based on the movement of underlying cash. A sufficient milk supply keeps market participants buying and selling as needed with little concern over supply tightness. The April contracts have finished trading, with May now the lead month. The May contract is nearly half-priced and will decline in volatility over the next two weeks. The April Federal Order class prices will be released tomorrow. The trade anticipates a Class III price of $17.45 and a Class IV price of $17.96.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.77
6 Month:	$17.99
9 Month:	$18.00
12 Month:	$17.98

CHEESE:

The block cheese price moved above the barrel price, which has not happened very often for quite some time. This may not indicate that the block cheese supply is tightening, but it is likely just business being done. Cheese production is increasing as milk production increases. Spot milk remains available below class, allowing plants to purchase extra at reduced prices to fill production schedules.

BUTTER:

The butter price declined to a multi-year low, reaching back to the lowest level since December 22, 2021. This compares to $2.9650 a year ago and $2.3525 on the same day in 2023. Buyers may step up to take advantage of the low price, but buying interest may be limited as there is little concern over supply.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 13.00 cents per bushel at $4.7025, July soybeans closed down 9.75 cents at $10.5275 and July soybean meal closed up $2.30 per ton at $298.20. July Chicago wheat closed down 5.50 cents at $5.2550. June live cattle closed up $0.60 at $210.20. June crude oil is down $1.63 per barrel at $60.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 300 points at 40,528, with the NASDAQ up 95 points at 17,461.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Falls to Multi-Year Low

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	13 Lower
SOYBEANS:	13 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.10 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.32 Higher
DOW JONES:	238 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	24 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.53 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 2 cents, closing at $1.72 with 12 loads traded. This was quite a contrast to Monday, when no buyers or sellers showed up during spot trading. There were no unfilled bids or uncovered offers remaining at the close. The barrel cheese price slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.7025 with one load traded and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 50.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 5 cents lower to 7 cents higher. The butter price decreased by 3.50 cents, closing at $2.24 with one load traded. The price moved to the lowest level it has been since Dec. 22, 2021. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.1875 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.12 to 2.50 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 1.12 cents lower to 1.02 cents higher. Tuesday is the last trading day for April futures and options, with the Federal Order class prices announced on Wednesday.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Activity Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures closed higher on Monday as the market drifted without direction from spot trading. Trading volume was very light as traders did not see much opportunity for scalping the market for a short-term trade. The market fundamentals are rather benign, with limited influence from the outside markets. The weather is conducive for milk production growth, and higher cow numbers will keep the market supplied with milk. In a few weeks, educational institutions will be closing for the summer, with most closing in a month. This will have more milk available for manufacturing and should reduce the cream supply. Today is the last trading day for April futures and options, with the Federal Order Class Prices announced on Wednesday.

CHEESE:

Buyers and sellers did not show up to do business in the spot market on Monday. Supplies are balanced as buyers see no need to become aggressive. Increasing cheese production will keep supplies readily available and limit the upside price potential.

BUTTER:

The price may retest the low and would be considered a buying opportunity. Limited upside potential is expected in the near term. Exports are expected to be robust as the U.S. price is very attractive to international buyers.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Showed Limited Volatility

MILK:

There has been no change in the fundamental news over the weekend, with the spot markets having the sole impact on the futures market. Milk production is following a seasonal direction as the spring flush continues. The extent of the increase and the duration cannot be predicted. Some believe that the spring flush will last through May, while others think it will continue into June. The warmer weather may result in the increase in milk production running its course sooner. Milk futures are not showing any significant price changes for the rest of the year. The impact of bird flu on dairy cattle and the potential for reduced milk output has become old news. Some updates are released at times, but farmers seem to have adjusted to it, and cows do not seem to be reinfected with it once they have overcome it.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.69
6 Month:	$17.85
9 Month:	$17.94
12 Month:	$17.94

CHEESE:

Buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines today with no interest in doing business. The buyers see sufficient supply for demand and do not need to be aggressive buyers. The sellers continue to move supplies to the market to reduce the increase in inventory at the plant level. This will limit the upside price potential but will also provide support.

BUTTER:

Spot butter may decline to the previous low of $2.26 before turning higher. The positive aspect is that retail demand is stronger due to the lower prices. International demand is strong due to the large discount it has on international prices. Increasing demand should keep the inventory from building at the plant level.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.8325, July soybeans closed up 3.25 cents at $10.6250 and July soybean meal closed down $2.60 per ton at $295.90. July Chicago wheat closed down 14.00 cents at $5.3100. June live cattle closed up $1.35 at $209.60. June crude oil is down $0.97 per barrel at $62.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 114 points at 40,228, with the NASDAQ down 17 points at 17,366.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Buyers and Sellers Show Little Interest in the Spot Market

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	Unchanged
SOYBEANS:	4 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.20 Higher
DOW JONES:	149 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	218 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.46 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block and barrel cheese prices remained unchanged at $1.70 and $1.7050 respectively, with no loads traded. No buyers or sellers showed up to do any business. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 50.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are mixed, ranging from 6 cents lower to 7 cents higher. Trading activity is very light and the least I have seen in a long time, with less than 200 contracts traded in any one month. The butter prices slipped 0.50 cent, closing at $2.2750 with seven loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.1875 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.00 cents lower to 0.65 cent higher. Dry whey futures have only had activity in the June contract with the price 0.25 cent lower.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Light Dairy Trading Activity Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures:	7 to 9 Lower

MILK:

The March Milk Production report was not supportive of higher milk prices anytime soon. Increasing milk production and milk per cow will keep a plentiful supply of milk available for demand. The spring flush will continue over the next month, with processing plants receiving increasing milk supplies. The underlying cash prices may remain choppy as buyers and sellers take care of business without fanfare. Planting is progressing, and the expectation is for plentiful feed supplies if average weather is experienced. Historically, milk prices follow the corn price, and the projected increase in corn acres may limit the upside potential of corn prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may have difficulty increasing as cheese output increases and demand remains steady. The recent gains in cheese prices were surprising and welcomed, but short-lived, as has been the pattern. Demand is expected to improve this summer, but the increase may not tighten the supply.

BUTTER:

Retail butter demand is improving, but food service demand is less than anticipated. Buyers have been able to purchase supplies without difficulty, which has limited the upside price potential. However, March butter stocks were only 4% above a year ago, even though churning has been active. December butter stocks were 11% above a year ago. This may eventually provide further support to the price.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Fluid Milk Sales Decline 2.2%

MILK:

Milk futures declined for the week, but not as much as should have been seen according to the drop in the spot cheese and butter prices. The reason for this is that futures prices did not increase as much as they should have when prices increased. Traders remained cautious when spot prices increased, as it was expected that there would be limited potential. The liquidation was not as great with the decline of prices due to limited exuberance on the way up, leaving less to liquidate on the way down. Fluid milk sales in February were 2.2% below February 2024. Whole milk sales declined 1.3%; flavored whole milk gained 2.3%; reduced fat milk declined 5.3%; low fat milk declined 12.8%; fat-free milk declined 6.7%; flavored fat-reduced milk declined 8.6%; and buttermilk sales declined 7.5%. Organic whole milk sales gained 6.9%; organic flavored whole milk declined 26.3%; organic reduced-fat milk increased 5.5%; organic low-fat milk declined 19.0%; organic fat-free milk declined 9.5%; and organic flavored fat-reduced milk sales declined 6.7%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.60
6 Month:	$17.79
9 Month:	$17.91
12 Month:	$17.92

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks declined by 13.50 cents with 27 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.7420. Barrels fell 13.50 cents with 21 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.7595. Dry whey gained 2.25 cents with seven loads traded. The weekly average price was 49.40 cents. Once buyers' needs were met, prices fell as quickly as they had increased. It may be difficult for cheese prices to increase very much over the next month as the spring flush continues.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 5.75 cents with nine loads traded. The weekly average price was $2.3145. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained 1.50 cents with 17 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.1850. The butter price fell below the trading range it has been in for the past two months, with the price falling to the lowest level since March 4. Buyers have been able to purchase for immediate needs as well as buy for later demand without chasing the market higher. This may limit the upside price potential later this year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 1.50 cents per bushel at $4.8550, July soybeans closed down 2.75 cents at $10.5925 and July soybean meal closed up $1.80 per ton at $298.50. July Chicago wheat closed up 0.50 cent at $5.4500. June live cattle closed up $0.25 at $208.25. June crude oil is up $0.38 per barrel at $63.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20 points at 40,114, with the NASDAQ up 217 points at 17,383.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Update - Butter Falls Below Support

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	5 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.50 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.75 Higher
DOW JONES:	156 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	96 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.20 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained steady to close spot trading at $1.70 with eight loads traded. The price initially declined by 0.75 cent before buying interest eliminated the loss. The barrel cheese price increased by 1.50 cent to close at $1.7050 with three loads traded. There were two unfilled bids and two uncovered offers remaining, with one unfilled bid and one uncovered offer remaining at the close. The dry whey price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at 50.50 with two loads traded. Class III futures were mixed moving into spot trading and have remained that way, with most contracts lower. Futures range from 11 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price declined 4.50 cents, closing at $2.28 with three loads traded. The price moved below the trading range it has been in to close at the lowest level since March 4. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.1875 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have only traded one contract in June, with the price down 19 cents. Butte futures are 3.95 cents lower to 0.22 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 1.52 cents lower to 1.00 cents higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Buyers May Hold Back During Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures:	3 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures held up well, considering the substantial decline of cheese prices. Traders had not aggressively supported the market as underlying prices increased, leaving fewer positions to liquidate on weakness. The Cold Storage report was neutral and should not have much impact on the market Friday. Dairy cattle slaughter was slightly higher than February but lower than a year ago, keeping the trend of increasing cow numbers intact. Increasing cow numbers and higher production per cow will continue to result in milk production exceeding the previous year. That will not overwhelm processing capacity but will increase the availability of dairy products to the market.

CHEESE:

Cheese inventory did not increase as much as anticipated in March, keeping stocks below a year ago. However, slightly lower demand is limiting the price potential. Manufacturers continue to offer cheese to the spot market to keep plant inventories from building. Spot prices may see further weakness Friday as buyers hold back.

BUTTER:

The increase in butter inventory in March was less than expected, with a gain of 18.1 million pounds. This put the butter supply 4% above a year ago. The abundant cream supply and active churning were expected to result in a larger increase. However, the supply of butter is not expected to tighten anytime soon. The price is expected to remain rangebound for the near term. 

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Cheese Inventories Increased, But Less Than Expected

MILK:

Class III milk futures closed lower but held up well despite the substantial decrease in cheese prices. Traders had been cautious as cheese prices increased, leaving fewer long positions that needed to be liquidated. It seemed buyers and sellers reacted to the negative milk production report a day later, as buyers stepped back. Increasing milk production and cow numbers will ensure sufficient milk will be available throughout the rest of the year. Farmers are not culling cows heavily but keeping the stalls full of cows that are already paid for. March dairy cattle slaughter totaled 217,900 head, an increase of 900 head from February, but 26,700 less than March 2024. This makes the 19th consecutive month of slaughter lower than a year earlier.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.66
6 Month:	$17.86
9 Month:	$17.94
12 Month:	$17.94

CHEESE:

The March Cold Storage report showed the inventory of American cheese increased by 18.1 million pounds, totaling 793.5 million pounds. This was 4% lower than March 2024. Swiss cheese inventory decreased by 537,000 pounds, totaling 23.3 million pounds, up 7% from a year ago. Other cheese inventories increased by 3.5 million pounds to a total of 575.0 million pounds, and 5% below March 2024. Total cheese inventory was 1.392 billion pounds, up 15.9 million pounds from March 2024. This was 4% lower than a year ago.

BUTTER:

The March butter inventory increased by 18.1 million pounds from February, totaling 323.7 million pounds. This was 4% below a year ago. The increase was less than anticipated, and stocks were not as high as expected compared to a year ago. Butter production was strong with abundant cream supplies, but demand must have been good to limit inventory growth.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 5.25 cents per bushel at $4.7725, July soybeans closed up 11.75 cents at $10.6200 and July soybean meal closed down $1.90 per ton at $296.70. July Chicago wheat closed up 1.00 cent at $5.4450. June live cattle closed down $0.10 at $208.00. June crude oil is up $0.48 per barrel at $62.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 487 points at 40,093, with the NASDAQ up 458 points at 17,166.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Plummet

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Higher
SOYBEANS:	11 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.65 Higher
DOW JONES:	396 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	389 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.63 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 6 cents, closing at $1.70 with five loads traded. There were two unfilled bids and two uncovered offers remaining at the close. The barrel cheese price fell 9.50 cents with one load traded. There was one unfilled bid and two uncovered offers remaining. Buyers stepped back as milk production exceeded a year ago and may continue to do so. The dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 51 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 5 cents higher to 35 cents lower, with April hosing the only gain. The butter price remained unchanged at $2.3250 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.50 cent, closing at $1.1875 with 10 loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.37 cents lower to 1.97 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 2.00 cents lower to 1.50 cents higher. USDA will release the March Cold Storage and Livestock Slaughter reports Thursday afternoon.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 14

For California, milk production continues to be seasonally stronger. However, many handlers note milk output increase paces are slowing. Some manufacturers describe April 2025 milk intakes thus far as slightly below anticipated volumes, but still up from March 2025. Central Valley manufacturers convey milk volumes have become generally well balanced with processing capacities over the last few weeks. Class I, II, III, and IV demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in Arizona remains seasonally stronger. Some Arizona handlers note milk output increase paces are slowing as well. Manufacturers indicate milk volumes are meeting production needs. Demand for Class I is stronger as holiday weekend breaks have ended. Class II, III, and IV demands are steady. 

For New Mexico, milk production is strong. Demand for Class I is stronger with educational institutions finishing holiday weekend breaks. All other Class demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in the Pacific Northwest is strong. Some manufacturers note milk intakes have been above anticipated volumes for much of April so far. Demand for Class I is stronger as spring recesses and holiday weekend breaks with educational institutions have finished. Demand for Class II is somewhat stronger from ice cream manufacturers. Class III and IV demands are steady. 

Milk production in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado, varies from steady to stronger. Stakeholders indicate plenty of milk is generally around and some spot milk load sales have been at below Class prices. Demands for all Classes are steady. 

Cream volumes continue to be readily available. However, stakeholders convey volumes are also somewhat more comfortable compared to processing capacities. Cream multiples moved higher on the bottom end of both ranges. Cream demand is somewhat stronger. Condensed skim milk availability is looser. Condensed skim milk demand is somewhat stronger.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage and Livestock Slaughter Reports Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The milk production report showed that the milk supply is plentiful and may remain that way for the foreseeable future, as cow numbers are higher and milk per cow exceeds a year ago. This sets the stage for limited upside price potential. Milk futures show lower milk prices throughout the year, but farmers intend to maintain milk production and keep the stalls full. Culling is not the only way to generate more immediate cash and to reduce feed costs. Substantial income is being received for beef-on-dairy calves, reducing the need to cull heavily. This has consistently been seen in the milk production and the livestock slaughter reports. The March Livestock Slaughter report will be released this afternoon and may continue to show the reduced slaughter of dairy cattle.

CHEESE:

Cheese output is increasing as milk receipts continue to increase at plants. Spot milk prices for milk were as much as $7 below class last week. Many plants cannot purchase the extra milk as they are already running on full schedules. The March Cold Storage report will be released today, which is expected to show an increase in inventory, but supplies should remain below a year ago.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain rangebound in the near term. The cream supply remains heavy and is expected to remain that way for another month. More demand for cream is coming from ice cream manufacturers, which should reduce the abundance but not tighten the supply. The March Cold Storage report is expected to show a significant increase in butter stocks from February.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Supplies Continue to Increase

MILK:

The bearishness of the milk production report was taken in stride, with traders focusing on underlying cash and the potential for increasing demand. Class III futures were mostly higher. Class IV futures were slightly lower in light trading activity. Milk production in most of the country is increasing as the spring flush continues. Spot milk prices hold a discount to class as most plants have sufficient supply and do not need to purchase extra. Bottling demand remains steady. The milk supply for manufacturing is increasing as more milk comes from farms. The March Livestock Slaughter report will be released on Thursday. There are mixed estimates as to the level of slaughter during the month. Weekly slaughter has shown an increase in dairy cattle slaughter, but that may not have been the case in March. The milk production report showed cow numbers up 8,000 head from a year ago. Heifer prices are high and not readily available to fill empty stalls. It will take some time for that purchased heifer to pay for itself. It may be cost-effective to hold a lower producer and be ahead financially.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.79
6 Month:	$18.01
9 Month:	$18.11
12 Month:	$18.08

CHEESE:

Dairy Market News reports that demand for cheese is improving in the Central Region of the country. However, it remains below a year ago and will need to improve significantly before prices trend higher. Spot milk is reflecting the spring flush, with prices reported as low as $7.00 below class. The March Cold Storage report will be released on Thursday and is expected to show an increase in inventory from February, but below a year ago.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain sideways as cream supplies are abundant and production exceeds demand. March inventory is expected to be significantly above a year ago. Stocks are expected to have increased substantially from February. Retail demand is steady as lower prices are attractive to consumers and international buyers.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 3.75 cents per bushel at $4.7200, May soybeans closed up 5.25 cents at $10.4025 and July soybean meal closed down $.90 per ton at $298.60. July Chicago wheat closed down 6.75 cents at $5.4350. June live cattle closed up $1.83 at $208.10. June crude oil is down $1.39 per barrel at $62.28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 420 points at 39,607, with the NASDAQ up 408 points at 16,708.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Price Jumps

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.70 Higher
DOW JONES:	603 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	511 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.83 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 1.50 cents, closing at $1.76 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 2.50 cents, closing at $1.7850 with one load traded. Sellers showed up more aggressively during spot trading, as there is little fundamental support under the market. The dry whey price jumped 2.25 cents, closing at 50.00 cents, and the highest price since March 31. Class III futures are 1 cent lower to 26 cents higher. The butter price increased 0.25 cent, closing at $2.3250 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent, closing at $1.1825 with two loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.45 cent lower to 1.70 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 2.70 to 3.70 cents higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Higher Milk Production Was Anticipated

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	6 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

The increase in March milk production of 0.9% was a surprise and bearish to the market. It may not push milk prices much lower, but it may limit the upside potential for the foreseeable future. It seems the higher milk production has already been factored into the market. Cow numbers continue to increase as cows are being held rather than culled due to high replacement prices. Lower-producing cows will pay for themselves due to lower feed prices and are already paid for. The heifer supply is tight, and prices are high. More cows are increasing the milk supply above a year ago. However, it is impressive that production per cow has also improved.

CHEESE:

The higher milk production will keep the market supplied with milk. Cheese production has been increasing as milk receipts continue to rise at the plant level. The cold storage report on Thursday is expected to show an increase in inventory, but supplies should remain below a year ago.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain choppy as churning remains active and Easter demand is over. Buyers have been able to purchase supplies for later demand without being aggressive. Sellers continue to bring butter to the spot market to keep inventory from building at the plant level.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Milk Production Up 0.9% From March 2024

MILK:

Milk prices may have a difficult time increasing as milk production outpaced last year, and cow numbers continue to increase. Milk production in March exceeded estimates with an increase of 1.0% in the top 24 states. Milk production per cow averaged 2,125 pounds, a gain of 4 pounds over March 2024. The number of milk cows totaled 8.96 million head. This was an increase of 9,000 head from February, and it was 72,000 more than a year ago. Milk production in the U.S. increased 0.9% from March 2024. Milk production per cow was 6 pounds higher than a year ago, totaling 2,111 pounds. Cow numbers increased by 8,000 head from February, totaling 9.404 million. This is 57,000 more than a year ago. There were 7 of the top 24 states showing production declines. Washington was down 4.3%; Florida declined 3.6%; Illinois declined 3.2%; California declined 2.1%; Arizona declined 0.7%; Oregon declined 0.5%; and Minnesota declined 0.1%. The largest increase took place in Texas with a gain of 9.4%. South Dakota gained 5.1%; Kansas increased 4.4%; Idaho gained 4.3%; and Georgia up 4.1%. The other states posted gains of less than 4.0%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.71
6 Month:	$17.95
9 Month:	$18.06
12 Month:	$18.04

CHEESE:

The action today in spot cheese trading leaves traders guessing as to the strength of the market. It had been anticipated that prices would decline further, but that was not the case as lower prices increased buying interest. Unfilled bids remaining at the close suggest cheese prices might move higher on Wednesday.

BUTTER:

The fundamentals in the butter market are neutral. Increasing supply may limit the upside price potential. Lower prices keep buyers actively purchasing supplies as a hedge against higher prices. Buyers have not had to chase the market higher to purchase supplies. The cold storage report released on Thursday is expected to show a significant increase in supply.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 6.00 cents per bushel at $4.7575, May soybeans closed up 5.50 cents at $10.3500 and July soybean meal closed down $.80 per ton at $299.50. July Chicago wheat closed down 2.00 cents at $5.5025. June live cattle closed up $2.53 at $206.28. June crude oil is up $1.14 per barrel at $63.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,017 points at 39,187 with the NASDAQ up 430 points at 16,300.

March Milk Production up 1.0 Percent

March Milk Production up 1.0 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during March totaled 19.0 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from March 2024. February revised production, at 17.0 billion pounds, was down 2.4 percent from February 2024. The February revision represented an increase of 26 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,125 pounds for March, 4 pounds above March 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.96 million head, 72,000 head more than March 2024, and 9,000 head more than February 2025.   

January-March Milk Production down 0.3 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during the January - March quarter totaled 56.7 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from the January - March quarter last year.  The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.40 million head, 36,000 head more than the October - December quarter, and 58,000 head more than the same period last year. 

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Reject the Lows

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Lower
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.72 Higher
DOW JONES:	668 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	294 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.47 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained steady at $1.7750 with 11 loads traded. The price initially declined by 3.50 cents, closing at $1.7750 before buying interest regained the losses. The barrel cheese price increased 0.25 cent, closing at $1.81 with 11 loads traded. There were five unfilled bids for blocks and three unfilled bids for barrels remaining at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 47.75 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures were under significant pressure before spot trading, but are currently mixed with contracts ranging from 21 cents lower to 18 cents higher. The butter price increased 0.25 cent, closing at $2.3225 with five loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.25 cent with one load traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.72 lower to 1.72 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady. USDA will release the March Milk Production report this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be 0.5% above a year ago and cow numbers to increase slightly.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Today

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures took a hit on Monday while Class IV futures moved higher. It made sense that Class III futures would be lower due to the weakness of cheese. The gains in Class IV futures were a bit of a surprise as butter declined. Traders seemed to be focused on the increase in nonfat dry milk. Likely, milk futures will be choppy in the near term unless demand improves, prompting buyers to become more aggressive. Milk production is increasing, with more milk available to the market. The supply and demand balance will be the driver of the market. USDA will release the March Milk Production report this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be 0.5% above a year ago. I am not sure whether cow numbers have increased or decreased since February. With the high replacement prices, I am leaning towards an increase in cow numbers.

CHEESE:

The decline of cheese prices was not unexpected as the recent increase was more than anticipated. Buyers reached a threshold for the time being with their needs met for now. Lower prices could renew buying interest as buyers look ahead to the potential for increased demand later this year.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain sideways for the near term. There is little fundamental reason for prices to trend higher. Manufacturing plants continue to run on full schedules, utilizing the available cream. Inventory continues to increase. The March Cold Storage report will be released on Thursday, April 24.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Growing Milk Inventory Limits Upside Potential

MILK:

Class III futures in nearby contracts quickly faded when the cheese, butter, and dry whey spot prices declined. Traders had been anticipating that there would be limited upside price potential, and it took place today as prices fell back. Class IV futures posted mostly double-digit gains as traders focused on the strength of nonfat dry milk. With milk production increasing seasonally as spring flush continues, there is sufficient milk for both bottling and manufacturing. Inventory has been increasing as demand is met, and extra inventory is moving into storage. The USDA will release the March Milk Production report on Tuesday, providing direction for the market in the near term. Milk production is expected to be above a year ago as more cows have been added to the nation's herd. I estimate milk production to be 0.5% above a year ago. The difficult aspect of the market is whether cow numbers increased or decreased compared to February. Lower milk prices may have increased culling, but high replacement prices may still favor holding onto cows.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.54
6 Month:	$17.86
9 Month:	$18.03
12 Month:	$18.02

CHEESE:

Cheese prices fell back after reaching a threshold. This does not mean that prices will not be able to exceed that level at some point, but buyers have reached a level at which they do not want to pay more for now. Higher milk production is increasing plant schedules as the milk receipts are increasing. More milk being processed means more cheese being available to the market.

BUTTER:

The butter is increasing as abundant cream supplies keep churning active. Demand is being met without difficulty, and excess is moving to storage. Buyers have been able to purchase loads for immediate needs and also to increase ownership for later in the year. This may limit the upside potential as the year progresses.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down .50 cent per bushel at $4.8175, May soybeans closed down 7.00 cents at $10.2950 and May soybean meal closed down $2.70 per ton at $292.90. May Chicago wheat closed down 10.25 cents at $5.3850. June live cattle closed down $0.33 at $203.75. June crude oil is down $1.60 per barrel at $62.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up/down 972 points at 38,170 with the NASDAQ down 416 points at 15,871.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Update - Spot Prices Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	Unchanged
SOYBEANS:	6 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.80 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.22 Lower
DOW JONES:	1150 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	550 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.63 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Block cheese fell 6 cents, closing at $1.7750 with one load traded. This ended the streak of daily gains that took place over the past two weeks. The barrel cheese price declined 3.35 cents, closing at $1.8075 with five loads traded. There were offers for two loads of blocks and two loads of barrels remaining at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at 47.75 cents with three loads traded. Class III futures were higher ahead of spot trading, with May up 38 cents before selling pressure pushed the price to double-digit losses. Futures are mixed, ranging from 20 cents lower to 21 cents higher. The butter price declined 2.25 cents, closing at $2.32 with one load traded. The Grade A nonfat dry milk price increased a penny to $1.1825 with four loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.25 cent lower to 0.40 cent higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.47 cents higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - An Active Overnight Market

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures have found support as underlying cash has been increasing overall. There remains uncertainty whether that can continue under the current fundamentals. Cheese and butter demand is steady and running below a year ago. However, demand is expected to improve as the year progresses. It is difficult to say whether that demand will improve sufficiently to tighten supplies and increase prices. The milk production report for March will be released on Tuesday, indicating whether cow numbers continue to increase or if lower milk prices have impacted culling. Milk futures show low milk prices may be with us through the year. This may result in increased culling and a tighter milk supply over time.

CHEESE:

Block cheese has been in greater demand as the price has increased steadily over the past two weeks. Traders remain cautious about whether that can continue much longer. The barrel cheese price has shown weakness but remains strong relative to blocks.

BUTTER:

The butter price is not expected to trend one way or the other, but to remain in a sideways pattern in the near term. The current price is similar to where it was in 2023 at this time. That year, once the price began trending higher in June, it moved to a record high by October. That is not expected to happen this year to that magnitude, but the price should trend higher. 

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - GDT Trade-Weighted Average Gained 1.6%

MILK:

Milk futures closed higher for the week with more optimism permeating through the market. The barrel cheese price declined over the past two days, but blocks continued to show strength. Cheese prices moved sufficiently to stimulate optimism. There is no lack of milk supply, and milk production is increasing as spring flush continues. Improving weather is increasing cow comfort and improving feed intake. The Global Dairy Trade auction took place earlier in the week. The trade-weighted average price increased 1.6%, with an average price of $4,385 per metric ton. There were 16,718 metric tons sold. Anhydrous milk gained 2.1% to $6,838 per metric ton or $3.10 per pound. Butter gained 1.5% to $7,679 per metric ton or $3.48 per pound. Cheddar cheese declined 1.8% to $4,923 per metric ton or $2.23 per pound. Lactose jumped 22.0% to $1,376 per metric ton or $0.62 per pound. Skim milk powder declined 2.3% to $2,795 per metric ton or $1.27 per pound. Whole milk powder gained 2.8% to $4,171 per metric ton or $1.89 per pound.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.69
6 Month:	$17.96
9 Month:	$18.06
12 Month:	$18.03

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks increased by 9 cents with 14 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.8075. Barrels increased by 3.50 cents with 14 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.8638. Dry whey increased 1.75 cents with 8 loads traded. The weekly average price was 47.44 cents. The block cheese price has increased for 10 consecutive days, with the price moving to the highest level since Feb. 27.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 0.50 cent with 38 loads traded. The weekly average price was $2.3450. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained 0.50 cent with 8 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.1688. The butter price has been entrenched in a sideways pattern since early March and is expected to remain that way for the near term.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 2.00 cents per bushel at $4.8225, May soybeans closed down 2.25 cents at $10.3650 and May soybean meal closed down $1.10 per ton at $295.60. May Chicago wheat closed up 1.00 cent at $5.4875. June live cattle closed up $2.00 at $204.08. May crude oil is up $1.88 per barrel at $64.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 527 points at 39,142 with the NASDAQ down 21 points at 16,286.