Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Production of Dairy Products Remained Strong

MILK:

Class III milk futures showed substantial declines for the week, pressured by the uncertainty of demand due to the sweeping implementation of tariffs. Class III futures suffered losses despite spot cheese prices increasing for the week. Traders did not care what the underlying cash did but were more focused on the impact tariffs might have on demand. It will be difficult for the current bearish attitude to change even during periods of stronger cash prices. Class IV futures were lower but did not suffer the losses of Class III contracts. This was somewhat surprising as both butter and nonfat dry milk spot prices declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was under substantial pressure for the second day as a result of the tariffs. It fell 2,231 points today and is down 10% over the past two days. This has rattled the equity and commodity markets, fueling fears of a recession.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.83
6 Month:	$17.32
9 Month:	$17.53
12 Month:	$17.57

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks increased 0.50 cent with 47 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6455. Barrels increased 2.50 cents with 16 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6605. Dry whey decreased 1.00 cents with six loads traded. The weekly average price is 49.35 cents. American cheese production was 1.3% below February 2024, totaling 441 million pounds. This is understandable as there was one less day than a year ago. Italian-type cheese production totaled 474 million pounds, down 0.5% from a year ago. Total cheese output reached 1.11 billion pounds, down 2.2% from February 2024. Dry whey production totaled 60.1 million pounds, down 16.7%. Lactose output totaled 83.9 million pounds, down 4.2%. Whey protein concentrate production declined 6.8% to 30.8 million pounds.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter decreased 5.50 cents with 28 loads traded. The weekly average price is $2.3290. Nonfat dry milk decreased 0.50 cent with 12 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.1665. Butter production was strong in February, totaling 203 million pounds. This was 2.6% above February 2024. Churns were actively producing more butter even though there was one less day in the month, Nonfat dry milk production was 0.3% lower at 147 million pounds. Skim milk powder production totaled 30.8 million pounds, down 15.1%. Ice cream production was 3.0% lower than at 55.6 million pounds.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 2.75 cents per bushel at $4.6025, May soybeans closed down 34.50 cents at $9.7700 and May soybean meal closed down $4.90 per ton at $283.10. May Chicago wheat closed down 7.00 cents at $5.2900. June live cattle closed down $6.50 at $198.20. May crude oil is down $4.62 per barrel at $62.33. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 2,231 points at 38,315 with the NASDAQ down 963 points at 15,588.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Update - Cheese Prices Rebound From the Lows

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	35 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$5.12 Lower
DOW JONES:	1657 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	805 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$5.11 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.64 with eight loads traded. The price initially declined 1.50 cents before buying interest moved the price up to close higher. The barrel price closed unchanged at $1.66 with three loads traded. The price initially fell 3 cents before buyers stepped up aggressively. There were two unfilled bids and two uncovered offers for loads of blocks remaining at the close. The dry whey price slipped 0.25 cent, closing at 49 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 2 to 18 cents lower. Futures regained some losses shortly after spot trading, but buying interest dried up. The butter price decreased 3.50 cents, closing at $2.2950 with 11 loads traded. This is the lowest it has been since March 20. Nonfat dry milk decreased 1.00 cents, closing at $1.1575 with two loads traded. Class IV futures have only traded in the June contract at 5 cents higher, with that trade taking place early in the day. Butter futures are 4.92 cents lower to 0.55 cent higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 2.80 cents lower. USDA will release the February Dairy Products report Friday afternoon.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Dairy Price Support Remains Elusive

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures:	15 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	8 to 10 Lower

MILK:

The pressure on milk futures came not only from the decline in cash prices, but from weakness in the equity markets. The fears of a recession and its impact on dairy demand leave a bearish uncertainty in the market. Even though the tariff news is concerning, milk production continues to increase seasonally. China announced the addition of a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the U.S. This is in addition to the tariffs already in place. This may reduce exports of dairy products to China. They are not a large buyer of dairy products, but any demand reduction is not good. USDA will release the February Dairy Products report Friday afternoon, providing a breakdown of dairy products produced during the month.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain in a range. Cheese production is increasing as more milk is available to manufacturers. Spot milk is being offered as much as $4.50 below class. Prices are expected to weaken as the spring flush continues and more milk becomes available.

BUTTER:

Retail butter demand is improving as consumers purchase supplies for the Easter season. Low prices are increasing buying interest with some consumers purchasing extra supplies and freezing them for later use. Manufacturers are operating at capacity with sufficient supplies available to the market. Sellers continue to offer supply on the spot market despite the low price.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - A Bad Day For Milk Futures

MILK:

It is uncertain whether buyers stepped back during the spot trading due to the implementation of tariffs and the possibility that dairy demand might be impacted. Mexico and Canada did not have additional tariffs added, as they are the largest importers of cheese, nonfat dry milk, and butterfat. The products that fall within the parameters of the USMCA agreement will continue to move with no tariffs. Products that fall outside of the USMCA agreement have a 10% tariff added. The tariffs added to countries may not reduce international demand for dairy products, but they may have an impact on demand indirectly as consumers will pay more for other food and durable goods, resulting in adjustments to diets and could reduce the demand for some dairy products. Both Class III and Class IV futures took a hit with Class III contracts showing substantial pressure.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.88
6 Month:	$17.37
9 Month:	$17.60
12 Month:	$17.66

CHEESE:

There have been 39 loads of block cheese traded so far this week. Manufacturing plants are moving supplies to limit inventory growth. There is little expectation of price strength in the foreseeable future. Holding inventory will not be beneficial as supply is expected to remain readily available. Increasing milk production is increasing the output of cheese.

BUTTER:

There are indications that the cream supply is becoming less, but supplies remain readily available. Churns continue to run on full schedules to utilize the available cream. Buyers see no shortage of butter and continue to purchase as needed, with some buying and freezing it for later demand.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down .25 cent per bushel at $4.5750, May soybeans closed down 18.00 cents at $10.1150 and May soybean meal closed up $.80 per ton at $288.00. May Chicago wheat closed down 3.25 cents at $5.3600. June live cattle closed down $2.70 at $204.70. May crude oil is down $4.76 per barrel at $66.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,679 points at 40,546 with the NASDAQ down 1,050 points at 16,551.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Fall Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	18 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.10 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.30 Lower
DOW JONES:	1,340 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	899 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$4.90 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 3.50 cents, closing at $1.63 with four loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 3.75 cents, closing at $1.66 with three loads traded. The pattern remained intact with only two days of price increases before pressure was put on the market. Traders had anticipated that cheese prices might not increase further with futures under pressure before spot trading. The weakness was confirmed with the drop in cheese prices. The dry whey price increased by 0.25 cent and was the only bright spot during spot trading. The price closed at 49.25 cents with two loads traded. Class III futures are 14 to 39 cents lower with the April, May and June contracts below $17.00. The butter price declined 1.00 cents, closing at $2.33 with nine loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.50 cent, closing at $1.1675 with six loads traded. Class IV futures have only had trading activity in the June contract, and that was 7 cents lower. Butter futures 0.05 to 3.17 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.47 to 2.05 cents lower.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 12

Milk production in California is seasonally stronger. Handlers note steady or increasing week-to-week milk production for week 14 compared to week 13. Manufacturers convey milk intakes are comfortably meeting volumes needed for planned production runs. A few stakeholders indicate finding homes for extra milk is somewhat challenging, mostly due to many manufacturers not having unused production capacity. Class I demand is lighter with educational institutions cycling through spring breaks. Class II demand is stronger. Class III and IV demands are steady. According to the California Department of Water Resources, as of April 1, 2025, total precipitation is up 0.78 inch from the historical mean for the current water year.  According to the California Department of Water Resources, as of April 2, 2025, snowpack levels for water year 2024-25 are 100 percent of normal to date compared to historical averages. 

For Arizona, milk production is stronger. Class I demand is somewhat lighter as recesses from educational institutions are not far off. Class II, III, and IV demands are steady. 

For New Mexico, farm level milk output is stronger. Demands for all Classes are steady. 

Milk production in the Pacific Northwest is generally strengthening as seasonally expected. In some cases, manufacturers convey milk intakes are notably up from anticipated volumes and recently milder spring weather has been a contributing factor to receiving higher than anticipated milk volumes. Class I demand is lighter as some spring breaks with educational institutions are fast approaching. All other Class demands are steady. 

Farm level milk output in the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado is strengthening as well. Plenty of milk is generally available to meet production schedules. A few manufacturers noted having to turn down spot milk load offers due to reduced processing capacities from planned downtime at their processing facilities. Class I demand is stronger with many educational facilities cycling through spring recess periods. All other Class demands are steady. 

Cream loads continue to be easily attainable but are somewhat tighter in week 14 compared to week 13. Cream multiples moved higher this week. Cream demand is somewhat stronger. Some stakeholders indicate ice cream manufacturing is particularly beginning to strengthen. Condensed skim milk is readily available. Condensed skim milk demand is steady. 

  

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Lower Due to Outside Market Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	10 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures:	1 to 3 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	6 to 9 lower
Soybean Futures:	16 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures:	10 to 13 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures did not respond positively to the increase in spot cheese prices over the past two days as traders anticipate limited upside potential. The announcement of the level of tariffs being implemented was not liked by traders, with selling pressure on futures overnight. The sharp decline in the outside markets will influence trading Thursday. The dairy markets have already factored in much of the potential impact from tariffs. This should result in some price stability, but the initial reaction is negative. If spot prices increase, it could reduce the bearish attitude but may not provide much support to futures.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have increased over the past two days, and it is possible the price could settle back as sellers may become more aggressive. The pattern over the past few months has been that price increases have been short-lived, generally lasting 2-3 days. This pattern is expected to remain as the market balances supply and demand.

BUTTER:

The butter price is not expected to move outside of the sideways trading range anytime soon. Churning is active with plants running on full schedules. There is sufficient supply to meet the current demand, with buyers purchasing ahead for later demand. The cream supply is abundant, but more demand may be seen from ice cream and other Class II products.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Class III Price Was $18.62

MILK:

Traders continue to expect cash prices to remain choppy. Even though cheese prices were higher, nearby futures closed lower with traders anticipating limited upside price potential. Milk production in the Eastern region continues to increase as the spring flush continues. Northeast milk plants report milk receipts are heavy and continue to increase. There is potential that the Northeast region may see some dumping of milk, as was seen last year. The USDA released the March Federal Order class prices today. The Class II price was $20.12 per cwt, down $0.96 from February and $1.00 below a year ago. The Class III price was $18.62, down $1.56 from February, but $2.28 higher than a year earlier. The Class IV price was $18.21, down $1.69 from a year ago and down $1.88 from March 2024. This is the first time the Class IV price has been below Class III since April 2023.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.07
6 Month:	$17.59
9 Month:	$17.83
12 Month:	$17.81

CHEESE:

Cheese demand is mixed, with some indicating it has increased over the past few weeks. Others indicate there has been little change in demand from both retail and the food service industry. Cheese variety may have an influence on demand. Cheese production is slowly increasing as milk receipts are increasing at the plant level. Spot milk is more available with prices as low as $4.00 under class.

BUTTER:

The butter price seems to be comfortable at the current level as business is being done with limited price movement.

The cream supply remains abundant, keeping churning active. Some reports indicate cheese is not quite as heavy as it had been. However, the cream supply is far from being tight. Strong milk production keeps supply readily available to manufacturers. Buyers have obtained much of their needs for the Easter season and are purchasing supplies for later demand at the lower prices.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Traders Pay Little Attention to Cheese Strength

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	5 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.40 Higher
DOW JONES:	224 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	167 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.55 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.75 cent, closing at $1.6650 with 11 loads traded. There have been 35 loads traded so far this week. The barrel cheese price increased by 3.75 cents, closing at $1.6975 with three loads traded. There were two unfilled bids for blocks and three unfilled bids for barrels remaining at the close of spot trading. There were four uncovered offers for loads of barrels remaining. The dry whey price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at 49 cents with two loads traded. Class III futures are 8 cents lower to 7 cents higher with very light trading activity. The butter price remained unchanged at $2.34 with seven loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $1.1725 with three loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 3.12 cents lower to 0.25 cent higher. Dry whey futures are unchanged to 0.52 cent lower.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Unusual Overnight Trading Activity

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	4 to 6 lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	2 to 4 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures are going nowhere as underlying cash prices remain range bound. Traders show little interest in establishing long-term positions and continue to scalp the market, attempting to take small profits from daily price moves. The milk supply is sufficient for demand. The spring flush is taking place with more milk available to the market. Current demand is not keeping up with the increasing milk supply, keeping milk prices at lower levels. The market needs a catalyst to increase the long-term buying interest of traders. It was unusual to see the overnight trading activity focused on the second half of 2025, with contracts 4-18 cents lower on good volume. The February Federal Order class prices will be announced Wednesday afternoon.

CHEESE:

Traders feel the strength in cheese prices from Tuesday will be short-lived. The market will need to prove otherwise for traders to turn more aggressive buyers and establish positions for the long term. Cheese production is increasing as more milk is available for manufacturing.

BUTTER:

Butter continues to see strong activity during spot trading as manufacturers want to limit plant inventories. Price increases result in more offers showing up, allowing buyers to increase ownership without having to chase the market higher.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - February Income Over Feed: $13.12

MILK:

Traders remain cautious over the upside price potential for cheese. The increase in cheese prices and unfilled bids at the close of spot trading did not generate much trading interest. It will take much more fundamental support to turn traders bullish on the market. The average soybean meal price for February was $304.78 per ton. This was $12.19 per ton lower than January and was $58.85 per ton below February 2024. The income over feed price for February was $13.12 per cwt. The price in February 2024 was $9.44. The Global Dairy Trade Auction showed the trade-weighted average gaining 1.1% from the previous event. There were 17,643 metric tons sold at an average price of $4,250 per metric ton. Anhydrous milk fat increased 2.3% to $6,705 per metric ton or $3.04 per pound. Butter decreased 1.2% to $7,602 per metric ton or $3.45 per pound. Buttermilk powder decreased 5.6% to $2,807 per metric ton or $1.27 per pound. Cheddar cheese increased 1.7% to $5,018 per metric ton or $2.28 per pound. Lactose decreased 2.6% to $1,132 per metric ton or $0.51 per pound. Skim milk powder increased 5.9% to $2,876 per metric ton or $1.30 per pound. Whole milk powder decreased 0.1% to $4,062 per metric or $1.84 per pound. Mozzarella decreased 4.0% to $4,517 per metric ton or $2.05 per pound.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.21
6 Month:	$17.70
9 Month:	$17.91
12 Month:	$17.87

CHEESE:

The number of unfilled bids remaining at the close of spot trading and the number of loads traded today suggest spot cheese prices could be higher on Wednesday. However, there is no indication of a change in trend and little indication of continued strength. The volume of cheese sold today indicates manufacturers want to continually move cheese to the market rather than have it build up at the plant level. They feel holding on to cheese in hopes of higher prices may not be beneficial.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain sideways for a while. Sellers will offer supply to the spot market on price increases or as they need to minimize inventory building. The world butter price remains over $1.00 above the U.S. price and should keep international demand strong despite potential tariffs.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 4.50 cents per bushel at $4.6175, May soybeans closed up 19.50 cents at $10.3425 and May soybean meal closed down $.40 per ton at $292.30. May Chicago wheat closed up 3.50 cents at $5.4050. June live cattle closed up $1.78 at $205.43. May crude oil is down $0.32 per barrel at $71.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 12 points at 41,990 with the NASDAQ up 151 points at 17,450.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Increase

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	17 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.50 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.27 Higher
DOW JONES:	228 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	2 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.26 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 2.25 cents, closing at $1.6575 with 24 loads traded. There were six unfilled bids remaining at the close. The barrel cheese price increased by 3.50 cents, closing at $1.66. There were three unfilled bids. This could suggest prices may see further gains on Wednesday. Class III futures are 11 cents lower to 3 cents higher. The butter price remained unchanged at $2.34 with no loads traded. The Grade A nonfat dry milk price increased a penny with one load traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 1.50 lower to 0.47 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.25 to 1.25 cents lower.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Choppy Prices to Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Mixed
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures show little reason to trend higher as there are sufficient supplies of milk and dairy products to meet demand. Mik production is increasing seasonally as the spring flush has begun. Processing plant capacity is not expected to be overwhelmed, but spot milk prices showed further weakness with prices posted as much as $4.50 below class. Increasing milk production may not push prices lower, however, it may limit the upside price potential for the time being. The Global Dairy Trade Auction will take place Tuesday. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) will release the average soybean meal price for February, providing the final price for calculating the income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to chop around in the near term as manufacturing plants want to move supply to limit the build of inventory at the plant level. Buyers see no need to be aggressive as sufficient supply is expected to remain available. Demand is showing signs of improving, but supply is readily available.

BUTTER:

Cream supplies remain abundant with churns running on full schedules. Reports are that it is not as difficult to find a home for cream as it had been. Butter fat levels may decrease slightly as milk production increases through the spring flush. The butter price is expected to have limited upside potential.