Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Raises Milk Production

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures ended the day lower with most Class III contracts again making new contract lows. USDA increased its milk production estimate for this year and next year in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report.

MILK:

USDA increased its estimate for milk production this year by 600 million pounds to 237.2 billion pounds. The estimate for 2027 was raised by 600 million pounds to 238.6 billion pounds. If this comes to fruition, it would be an increase of 5.5 billion pounds over 2025 and 11.3 billion pounds over 2024. A substantial increase in the nation's dairy herd and higher milk production per cow are the reasons for the large increase. It was surprising that USDA increased milk output that much from the August report. Lower milk prices and the outlook for low milk prices are not expected to be a factor, according to USDA. The estimate for the average Class III price was reduced by $0.05 to $16.20 this year and reduced by $0.15 to $17.10 for 2027. The average Class IV price was increased by $0.40 to $18.55 this year and raised by $0.35 for 2027 to an average of $17.55. The All-milk price was raised by $0.05 this year from the August report to $19.90. It was left unchanged at $19.80 for 2027.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.22
6 Month:	$16.52
9 Month:	$16.79
12 Month:	$16.99

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks decreased by 0.25 cent with 7 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.4631. The barrel cheese price fell 7.00 cents with 10 loads traded. The price decline and loads traded took place on Thursday and were the only activity of the week. The weekly average price is $1.4975. Dry whey increased 0.75 cent with one load traded. The weekly average price is 75.75 cents. USDA reduced the estimate for the cheese price this year by 0.50 cent to average $1.57, with the average for 2027 reduced by 2.00 cents to $6450 per pound. The dry whey price was left unchanged at 67.00 cents for this year and raised a penny next year to 69.00 cents.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 7.00 cents with 72 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.3806. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 9.00 cents with 10 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.9294. The estimated price for this year was raised 6.50 cents to $1.6700, while the estimated price for 2027 was raised 8.00 cents to $1.5500 per pound.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 3.50 cents per bushel at $5.3025, November soybeans closed down 35.75 cents at $12.9650, and December soybean meal closed down $4.10 per ton at $352.80. December Chicago wheat closed down 16.00 cents at $7.2525. October live cattle closed up $1.85 at $219.68. October crude oil is down $2.43 per barrel at $100.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 509 points at 52,573, with the NASDAQ up 251 points at 26,333.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese and Butter Hold Steady

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	4 Lower
SOYBEANS:	37 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$5.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.25 Higher
DOW JONES:	578 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	310 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$2.66 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both block and barrel cheese prices remained unchanged at $1.4600 and $1.4625, respectively. Buyers did not show up Friday, with only an offer posted in each category. Dry whey price remained unchanged at 76.00 cents, with no loads traded. Class III futures are mixed, ranging from 5 cents lower to 9 cents higher. The butter price remained steady at $1.3700 with 12 loads traded. There were 15 unfilled bids and 30 uncovered offers. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained 3.00 cents to close at $1.9700 with four loads traded. Class IV is 8-27 cents lower. Futures are adjusting to move in line with underlying cash and ahead of the weekend. Butter futures are 1.35 cents lower to 0.50 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.47 cent lower to 0.47 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.00 cent lower to 0.60 cent higher. Nonfat dry milk futures are 0.25-1.00 cent lower. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released, with USDA increasing its estimate for milk production to 237.2 billion pounds for this year and to 238.6 billion pounds for next year.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Price Support Remains Elusive

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	3 to 6 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures:	13 to 15 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures continue to show weakness. In overnight trade, the October contract fell to $16.02 before regaining some of the loss. Support remains elusive. The outlook does not look positive as seasonal strength has not developed. Milk production is sufficient for bottling and manufacturing needs with no concern over supplies through the end of the year. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report will be released this morning. The report will show expectations for grain production, ending stocks, and estimated prices. The report will also contain the estimates for milk production, milk prices, and dairy product prices for this year and next year. The report is not a market-mover but is used for projecting price potential.

CHEESE:

The fall of the barrel cheese price on Thursday did not have any impact on milk prices, as barrels are not used in the milk price calculation. However, it does indicate the weakness prevalent in the market and supports the weakness seen in blocks.

BUTTER:

The butter price is just 7 cents above the low of this year.

There is nothing to indicate the price will not decline to that level before it will be low enough to generate more aggressive buying interest. Offers on the daily spot market remain large, keeping the market bearish with limited upside potential.