Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - April Dairy Exports Remain Strong

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures were lower. Class IV futures took quite a hit with substantial losses in July through September contracts. April dairy exports remained strong.

MILK:

The day was not kind to milk futures, with Class IV contracts showing substantial weakness. Nonfat dry milk has been unable to find support with the price moving to the lowest level since March 11th. The price has fallen $0.55 since it peaked on May 7th. Buyers continue to purchase, but only at lower prices and for immediate demand. Lower prices are expected to continue, leaving buyers unwilling to purchase for inventory. April dairy exports on a milk solids equivalent basis rose 15% from April 2025. This was the seventh consecutive year-over-year increase. Dairy exports for the first quarter have increased 12% compared to the same period last year. The total value of exports for the first four months of the year is 10% higher than in the same period last year. Even with the uncertainty and ongoing shipping disruptions, international demand remains strong due to attractive U.S. prices.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.39
6 Month:	$17.09
9 Month:	$17.25
12 Month:	$17.30

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are stuck and may move in a tight sideways range for a while. The amount of block cheese traded in the spot market today was substantial and unusual for the volume generally traded in a day. Increased cheese production is being absorbed by demand. April cheese exports were strong, setting a new monthly record at 64,168 metric tons, up 30% from April 2025. Cheese exports have set new records for three consecutive months. Whey exports were 39% higher than a year ago, totaling 52,097 metric tons.

BUTTER:

The butter price dropped back today on limited spot trading. This increases the concern that the market may fall further before finding support. Butterfat exports in April were 74% higher than a year ago, totaling 14,757 metric tons. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports were 9.0 percent above a year ago at 56,369 metric tons.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 2.75 cents per bushel at $4.1550, July soybeans closed up 5.75 cents at $11.1925, and July soybean meal closed up $.70 per ton at $302.00. July Chicago wheat closed up 5.25 cents at $5.8975. August live cattle closed up $2.08 at $243.25. July crude oil is down $3.44 per barrel at $81.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 469 points at 51,671, with the NASDAQ up 795 points at 26,684.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Nonfat Dry Milk Continues to Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	3 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.20 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.57 Higher
DOW JONES:	673 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	790 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$4.42 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 1.25 cents to close at $1.4750 with 26 loads traded. There were three unfilled bids and five uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. The price initially moved 0.75 cent higher before selling pressure moved the price lower. The barrel cheese price was unchanged at $1.42 with no loads traded. The dry whey price gained 0.75 cent to close at 68.75 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 17 cents lower to 1 cent higher. The butter price declined 4.25 cents to close at $1.6250 with one load traded. The one load was traded at the closing price. There were five unfilled bids and 27 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 4.00 cents to close at $1.7450 with five loads traded. The market has not been able to find support and is declining faster than it increased. The price is at the lowest level since March 11. Class IV futures are 5-58 cents lower. Butter futures are 3.25 cents lower to 0.32 cent higher. Dry whey futures are steady with light activity. Cheese futures are 0.10-1.90 cents lower.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Trade Likely Light, Directionless

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	8 to 9 Lower

MILK:

There is not much change expected in the market anytime soon. Fundamentals remain similar to what they have been over the past months. The weather has had some impact on milk production, but mainly it has been confined to finishing the spring flush milk volume. Butterfat has been impacted to some extent, but it remains above the level of a year ago. Milk production has remained above last year and is expected to remain higher through the rest of the year. Trading activity is expected to be light ahead of spot trading.

CHEESE:

The upside price potential in cheese is likely limited. Strong cheese output is keeping pace with demand. Plants continue to sell cheese on the spot market to limit building inventory. Cheese production later this year is expected to keep pace with demand without tightening supply.

BUTTER:

The large volume of butter traded on the spot market last week keeps demand satisfied. Plants are avoiding building inventory. Buyers are purchasing for immediate needs and to increase ownership for later demand. Strong butter production is keeping the market balanced. Strong demand should support the price.