May Milk Production (24 states) up 2.4 Percent

May Milk Production up 2.4 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during May totaled 19.8 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from May 2025. April revised production, at 19.2 billion pounds, was up 2.8 percent from April 2025. The April revision represented a decrease of 1 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,143 pounds for May, 9 pounds above May 2025.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.23 million head, 182,000 head more than May 2025, and 7,000 head more than April 2026.   

May Milk Production in the United States up 2.3 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during May totaled 20.6 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from May 2025.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,128 pounds for May, 8 pounds above May 2025.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.67 million head, 184,000 head more than May 2025, and 10,000 head more than April 2026. 

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - May Milk Production Up 2.3 Percent

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures close under pressure with numerous contracts posting double-digit losses. Class IV futures close mixed. The May Milk Production report came near expectations. U.S. milk production increased 2.3 percent, with cow numbers up 10,000 head.

MILK:

Unfortunately, some spot prices declined, putting further pressure on most milk futures contracts. The July Class III contract closed below $16.00 for the first time, and another new contract low. Subsequent months continue to roll down as spot prices remain weak. USDA released the May Milk Production report today. The top 24 states showed milk production up 2.4 percent from May 2025, totaling 19.8 billion pounds. Milk production per cow averaged 2,143 pounds, which was 9 pounds above a year ago. Cow numbers increased by 7,000 head from April. Milk production in the U.S. increased 2.3 percent over a year ago, with output at 20.6 billion pounds. Milk production per cow was 8 pounds higher than in May 2025. Cow numbers increased by 10,000 head. The nation's dairy herd was 184,000 head more than in May 2025, totaling 9.67 million head. This will continue the market bearishness.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.13
6 Month:	$16.76
9 Month:	$16.94
12 Month:	$17.00

CHEESE:

The block cheese price declined to the lowest level since February 13th. Buyers continue to hold for lower prices, seeing that sellers want to move supplies at whatever price they can get. They have no desire to hold cheese in anticipation that prices might strengthen later in the year. Strong milk production and increased cheese output leave little reason for cheese prices to see much upside potential. Plants are not interested in paying for storage with little benefit to hold inventory.

BUTTER:

The spot butter price has declined to the lowest level since May 22nd. The brief period of gain in late May has now been erased. It is uncertain where the price may find a bottom or if it will follow the path of the clock cheese price. There has recently been a slight increase in demand from the food service industry, but also a slight slowing in retail demand.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 6.00 cents per bushel at $4.1150, November soybeans closed down 1.25 cents at $11.4150, and July soybean meal closed down $1.50 per ton at $299.80. September Chicago wheat closed down 6.50 cents at $6.0750. August live cattle closed up $0.73 at $247.35. August crude oil is down $1.77 per barrel at $74.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 201 points at 51,766, with the NASDAQ down 351 points at 26,167.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Show Further Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Lower
SOYBEANS:	4 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.30 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.25 Higher
DOW JONES:	189 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	25 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$2.00 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 6.00 cents to close at $1.39 with 8 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.46 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 68.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures came under pressure with contracts 1-27 cents lower. The July contract is trading below $16.00. The butter price declined 2.50 cents to close at $1.53 with 23 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 2.50 cents to close at $1.6150 with 16 loads traded. Class IV futures are mixed from 15 cents lower to 20 cents higher. The largest gain took place in the nearby June contract on just one load traded. It was likely a market order as the contract is mostly priced and should move very little until the Federal Order prices are released.

Butter futures are 1.37 cents lower to 1.97 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady, with trading activity only taking place in the July contract. Cheese futures are 0.30--2.60 cents lower. Nonfat dry milk futures are 0.90 cent lower to 0.70 cent higher. The May Milk Production report will be released today. I estimate milk production to be 2.4% higher than in May 2025. I estimate cow numbers to increase by 6,000 head from April.