Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Nonfat Dry Milk Pushes Higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.80 Higher
DOW JONES:	442 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	501 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.15 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 2.00 cents, closing at $1.4050 with 11 loads traded. There were four unfilled bids and no uncovered offers remaining at the close. The barrel cheese price increased 2.00 cents, closing at $1.4150 with no loads traded. The dry whey price decreased 3.50 cents, closing at 70.50 with no loads traded. Class III futures are 2 cents lower to 49 cents higher. The butter price remained unchanged at $1.58 with nine loads traded. There were 27 unfilled bids and one uncovered offer remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk jumped 4.00 cents to close at $1.50 with four loads traded. This is the highest price since Oct. 13, 2022. Class IV futures are steady to 12.00 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.97 cents lower to 2.00 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 1.10 cents lower to 0.32 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.90-4.60 cents higher. I need to correct my closing commentary on Monday. I incorrectly reported that the income over feed price for December was $9.58 when in fact it was $9.42. There will be a payment of $0.08 per cwt for the month. I apologize for reporting the incorrect price.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Correct From Monday's Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	8 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	6 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Greater volatility is being seen in milk futures, but it has not accomplished much as far as price direction is concerned. There had been a substantial increase in prices over a week ago, but that has since settled down to the levels the futures were before the volatility. Strong milk production does not support strong milk prices. Replacement heifer supplies continue to tighten as shown on the Cattle Inventory report, but it has not impacted the increase in cow numbers. Milk production remains strong and so does the production of dairy products. Milk futures were overdone to the downside on Monday and are now correcting to move in line with the spot market until spot trading shows further direction.

CHEESE:

It is uncertain whether cheese has found a higher level of support or if this is just temporary. Higher prices may be difficult to support unless there is increasing demand. Strong milk production keeps sufficient milk available for cheese production. Buyers show little concern over a tightening market.

BUTTER:

The demand for butter has been stronger than had been anticipated. Retail and export demand has been strong. However, demand from food service remains less than desired and expected. The current price level should be supported, but the upside potential may be limited over the next few months.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - December Income Over Feed Was $9.58

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III milk futures remained under pressure despite the increase in the block cheese price. Class IV futures maintained some strength until later in the day when futures began weakening. The average soybean meal price for December was released, which resulted in an income over feed price of $9.58.

MILK:

Milk futures did not fare well today despite the increase in the block cheese price and a steady butter price. It seems as if traders are trading contrary to the underlying cash with the intent of creating volatility. Of course, the cash price swings cause futures to move outside the realm of where the price correlation is and move futures further up or down more than they should. This causes prices to correct to where the correlation should be, despite spot price movements during the day. The average soybean meal price for December was released this morning. The price for December was $311.93 per ton, down $18.94 per ton from November. This results in an income over feed price of $9.58. There will be no DMC payment for the month. Tuesday is the last trading day for January futures and options, with the Federal Order prices announced on Wednesday. The low milk prices that will be seen for January will result in a DMC payment.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$15.34
6 Month:	$16.08
9 Month:	$16.62
12 Month:	$16.89

CHEESE:

The bounce in the spot block price is meaningless and just a matter of business being done. The volume of loads traded is positive, indicating good demand interest. However, the selling interest is an indication of sufficient supplies being available for demand. Cheese prices are expected to be choppy at best.

BUTTER:

At least the butter price held today, but unfortunately, it did not increase. Traders took more premiums out of butter futures. The consensus is that the butter price may have limited upside potential, but traders are cautious. Lower inventory in December was a surprise due to abundant cream supplies and heavy butter output. This may support the price at a higher level.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

March corn closed down 2.50 cents per bushel at $4.2575, March soybeans closed down 4.00 cents at $10.6025, and March soybean meal closed up $.90 per ton at $294.50. March Chicago wheat closed down 10.25 cents at $5.2775. April live cattle closed up $2.73 at $239.53. March crude oil is down $2.90 per barrel at $62.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 515 points at 49,408, with the NASDAQ is up 130 points at 23,592.