Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - November Milk Production Jumps 4.5%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III milk futures were mixed, with nearby contracts lower and later contracts higher. It was surprising that more pressure was not put on the market after the release of the November Milk Production report. The milk production report was bearish, with the highest increase in milk production for the year. Production increased by 4.5%, with increased cow numbers.

MILK:

Milk production continues to increase, with November showing the greatest year-over-year gain so far. Milk production in the top 24 states was up 4.7%, totaling 18.1 billion pounds. October milk production was revised 0.1% higher. Milk production per cow was 43 pounds higher than in November 2024. Cow numbers increased by 1,000 head from October. United States milk production was 4.5% higher than in November 2024, totaling 18.8 billion pounds. This is the largest percentage increase in year-to-date milk production. Milk production per cow was 41 pounds higher than in November 2024 at 1,963 pounds. Cow numbers in the country were steady with October and are 211,000 head more than a year ago at 9.57 million head. There is no evidence of it slowing down, and according to this, the nation's dairy herd may increase further over time. There was a huge rebound in the percentage of milk production in some states. Kansas increased 26.4% from a year ago. South Dakota was 10.8% higher. California was up 10.4%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$15.47
6 Month:	$15.84
9 Month:	$16.36
12 Month:	$16.68

CHEESE:

The block cheese price made another new low for the year, with the price moving to the lowest level since June 29, 2023. It does not look as if the price will rebound quickly as it did at that time. The fundamentals are very different. There is a plentiful supply of cheese.

BUTTER:

The butter price made a new low for the year, with the price at the lowest level since February 22, 2021. Retail demand has been strong, but food service demand has been lower than a year ago. The USDA will release the November Cold Storage report, and it should bring cold storage reports up to date. I am afraid that inventory is higher than expected based on the market price action. We have not had a cold storage report since the government shutdown in October.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

March corn closed up 3.25 cents per bushel at $4.4700, January soybeans closed up 4.00 cents at $10.5325 and March soybean meal closed up $.80 per ton at $301.90. March Chicago wheat closed up 5.75 cents at $5.1550. February live cattle closed up $0.63 at $231.43. February crude oil is up $1.43 per barrel at $57.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 228 points at 48,363, with the NASDAQ is up 121 points at 23,429.

November Milk Production in the United States up 4.5 Percent

November Milk Production up 4.7 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during November totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 4.7 percent from November 2024. October revised production, at 18.7 billion pounds, was up 3.8 percent from October 2024. The October revision represented a decrease of 11 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,979 pounds for November, 43 pounds above November 2024.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.13 million head, 214,000 head more than November 2024, and 1,000 head more than October 2025.   

November Milk Production in the United States up 4.5 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during November totaled 18.8 billion pounds, up 4.5 percent from November 2024.  Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,963 pounds for November, 41 pounds above November 2024.  The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.57 million head, 211,000 head more than November 2024, but unchanged from October 2025. 

Monday Midday Dairy Market Update - Cheese and Butter Prices Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Higher
SOYBEANS:	4 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.90 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.60 Higher
DOW JONES:	228 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	119 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.38 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 2.00 cents, closing at $1.34 and a new low for the year. There were two loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.42 with no trades. The higher barrel price over blocks has no impact on the weakness of blocks. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 70.50 with no loads traded. Class III futures are 30 cents lower to 19 cents higher. The January contract is being hit the hardest. The butter price declined 3.00 cents, closing at $1.3850 with eight loads traded. This is a new low for the year. Grade A nonfat dry milk gained 1.25 cents to close at $1.17 with five loads traded. Class IV futures are 3.00 cents lower to 10.00 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.70-3.60 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.20-1.72 cents higher. Cheese futures are 0.20-2.80 cents lower. USDA will release the November Milk Production report this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be up 3.5% from a year ago and cow numbers down 5,000 head from October.