Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Milk Production Was Up 2.3%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures closed higher while Class IV futures closed lower. Butter and nonfat dry milk are unable to find a bottom. June milk production was 2.3% higher than June 2025. Cow numbers increased 19,000 head from May.

MILK:

The June Milk Production report showed continued strong milk output and higher cow numbers. Milk production in the top 24 states was 2.4% higher than in June 2025, totaling 18.9 billion pounds. May milk production was revised 0.2% lower than the initial report. Milk output per cow averaged 2,051 pounds, up 7 pounds from a year ago. Cow numbers increased by 18,000 head from May, totaling 9.23 million. U.S. milk production was 2.3% above June 2025, reaching 19.7 billion pounds. Milk output per cow was 10 pounds higher, totaling 2,036 pounds. Cow numbers increased by 19,000 head from May. The nation's dairy herd totaled 9.677 million head. This is a bearish report. Second quarter milk production totaled 60.2 billion pounds, up 2.4% from the same period last year. The advanced Class I price for August is $18.76, down $2.57 per cwt from July and down $0.17 from August 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.10
6 Month:	$17.44
9 Month:	$17.46
12 Month:	$17.48

CHEESE:

The block cheese price has moved to the highest level since October 31, 2025. The continued strength has been welcomed and has pushed the August Class III futures contract nearly $2.00 higher than July. Farmers will breathe a little easier if spot prices can hold. Continued strong milk production will ensure sufficient cheese is available for demand, which may limit upside price potential.

BUTTER:

The weakness of the butter price has been more than anticipated. The price is near the bottom end of the trading range and has eliminated much of what was gained since the low on June 23. Cream supplies to churns are tighter, as more cream is being diverted to higher-value products such as ice cream.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 9.50 cents per bushel at $4.8475, November soybeans closed up 16.25 cents at $12.3900, and December soybean meal closed up $5.60 per ton at $332.90. September Chicago wheat closed up 27.75 cents at $7.0575. October live cattle closed down $4.03 at $219.20. September crude oil is up $2.11 per barrel at $86.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 6 points at 52,219, with the NASDAQ down 146 points at 25,691.

June Milk Production up 2.4 Percent

June Milk Production up 2.4 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during June totaled 18.9 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from June 2025. May revised production, at 19.7 billion pounds, was up 2.2 percent from May 2025. The May revision represented a decrease of 43 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,051 pounds for June, 7 pounds above June 2025.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.23 million head, 185,000 head more than June 2025, and 18,000 head more than May 2026.   

April-June Milk Production up 2.4 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during the April - June quarter totaled 60.2 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from the April - June quarter last year.  The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.67 million head, 44,000 head more than the January - March quarter, and 192,000 head more than the same period last year. 

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Posts Another Gain

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	8 Higher
SOYBEANS:	11 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$5.30 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.90 Lower
DOW JONES:	95 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	50 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$2.44 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.00 cent to close at $1.67 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.56275 with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 0.25 cent to close at 70.00 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are steady to 32 cents higher. The butter price decreased 3.560 cents to close at $1.5400 with no loads traded. The price is moving closer to the low end of the trading range. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 2.00 cents to close at $1.4100 with 7 loads traded. Class IV futures are 14-38 cents lower. Butter futures are steady to 4.00 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.05 -- 0.85 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.40 cent lower to 3.10 cents higher. Nonfat dry milk futures are 1.00 -- 2.67 cents lower. The June Milk Production report will be released this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be 2.2 percent higher than a year ago, with cow numbers 4,000 head more than May.