Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Traders Search for Positive Fundamentals

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures found little support, with most contracts closing lower. Later contracts showed continued pressure. Class IV futures found support from a stronger nonfat dry milk price. The August Milk Production report will be released tomorrow.

MILK:

Cheese prices are choppy and continue in a downtrend. This is not typical during this time of year and is a great cause for concern. Quite a bit of purchasing by recutters and packagers for the holidays has been completed, with some ongoing purchases continuing into October. Cheese buying will continue up to the holidays as demand will be ongoing, but sufficient supplies may limit the upside price potential. USDA will release the August Milk Production report on Tuesday. Milk production is expected to be higher than a year ago. I estimate milk production to be 1.6% higher than August 2025. I estimate the cow number to be 4,000 head less than July. Lower milk and calf prices may begin to increase culling. The August Livestock Slaughter report will be released on Thursday and will indicate the attitude will hold moving through the end of the year.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$15.95
6 Month:	$16.15
9 Month:	$16.46
12 Month:	$16.69

CHEESE:

The slight increase in the block cheese price does little to change the trend or the attitude in the market. The market will need to prove itself before the outlook improves. It is unlikely current demand will be sufficient to tighten the supply of cheese sufficiently in the near term.

BUTTER:

The price continues to struggle, with any strength being short-lived. The nonfat dry milk price has been steady or higher the past ten consecutive days. It is doubtful the price will move back to the high in May, but it continues to move closer to that level. The price may reach a threshold where demand will slow as it did at that time. However, demand is strong, and higher prices may remain for an extended time.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 15.50 cents per bushel at $5.4300, November soybeans closed up 24.50 cents at $13.2800, and December soybean meal closed up $9.80 per ton at $368.40. December Chicago wheat closed up 12.50 cents at $7.2675. December live cattle closed up $5.38 at $222.00. November crude oil is down 4.08 per barrel at $92.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 366 points at 52,049, with the NASDAQ up 600 points at 27,122.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Nonfat Dry Milk Continues Higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	14 Higher
SOYBEANS:	24 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$11.10 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$5.05 Higher
DOW JONES:	191 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	530 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$4.84 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese prices increased 1.50 cents to close at $1.3650 with 2 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.4525 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 78.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 13 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price decreased a penny to close at $1.3600 with no loads traded. There were 34 uncovered offers with only one unfilled bid. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.25 cents to close at $2.0925 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are steady to 21 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.45 cents lower to 0.25 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.42 to 0.97 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.70 cents lower

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	8 t0 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Higher
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	5 to 6 Higher
Soybean Futures:	7 to 9 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:	6 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures start the week under pressure, with the October Class III contract nearing the $15.50 level. The substantial weakness of block cheese on Friday does not bode well at this time of year. Cash prices should be supported as buyers look ahead to holiday demand. However, there is too much supply available for higher prices to develop. The August milk production report is expected to show higher milk output than a year ago. Milk output is not overwhelming plant capacity due to the plant expansions that have taken place. Demand is unlikely to tighten the supply sufficiently to increase prices anytime soon.

CHEESE:

The substantial weakness of block cheese on Friday may result in further weakness this week as buyers will hold back. The market is at risk of revisiting the lows of early January. The current outlook shows little upside potential.

BUTTER:

The bounce in the butter price on Friday does not indicate support has been found. There is little to suggest a change in trend as churning remains active and supplies readily available. Hopefully, the market price will find stability.