Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Block Cheese Weakness: Aberation or Reality

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 9 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$0.50 to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

This week has been brutal for Class III milk futures. Selling pressure earlier in the week was the forerunner of weakness in the block cheese price on Wednesday. Futures did not react violently to the downside due to weakness in cheese already factored in. However, the magnitude of the weakness was unexpected, resulting in further pressure. Increasing milk production will keep cheese output strong and may exceed demand in the near term. Farms are expected to push milk production, and cow numbers are expected to increase as the year progresses.

CHEESE:

Cheese buyers are likely to hold back during spot trading to see whether sellers will remain aggressive and move more supplies. There were no uncovered offers at the close on spot trading on Wednesday, which could suggest the decline may have been an aberration, with buyers willing to step back in to take advantage of the decline. This will keep traders cautious.

BUTTER:

The butter price has yet to find support. Offers remained at the close of spot trading on Wednesday, indicating sellers want to move more product. Manufacturers want to move supplies rather than build plant inventories.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Supplies Abound

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

The trend is higher in cheese prices, as the market seemingly had support, came to an end today. Whether the weakness in blocks was an aberration or a long-overdue fundamental correction is yet to be seen. Milk production is generally in the early stages of the spring flush.

MILK:

Class III milk futures were lower again as the substantial decline in the block cheese price had not all been factored in. The decline was greater than expected. Spring flush is in the early stages in most areas. It is uncertain how much production will increase over the next two months. There are a lot of cows that could push production significantly higher as cow comfort improves and feed intake increases. Milk futures do not look as good as they did a week ago, but they still look better with the July through December contracts holding above $18.00. Class IV futures have seen pressure, but not as dramatically as Class III. The steady increase in Grade A nonfat dry milk has supported the Class IV market.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.27
6 Month:	$17.87
9 Month:	$18.05
12 Month:	$17.91

CHEESE:

The block cheese price fell, eliminating the gains since March 16. A price retracement was expected, but it was not expected to drop as much as it has in one day. Aggressive buyer demand was satisfied, and they stepped back from the market. There was still buying interest, but at lower prices. Milk availability in the Central regions has increased significantly, with more increases to come. Spot milk is running $2.00 to $7.00 under class.

BUTTER:

The butter price has been unable to find support, with the price moving to the lowest level since Feb. 18. Manufacturers continue to run on full schedules but not quite at full capacity. So far this week, there have been 57 loads traded on the spot market.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 1.75 cents per bushel at $4.4725, May soybeans closed up 3.75 cents at $11.6200 and May soybean meal closed up $2.30 per ton at $314.10. May Chicago wheat closed down 17.75 cents at $5.8025. June live cattle closed up $0.13 at $245.93. May crude oil is down $18.54 per barrel at $94.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,325 points at 47,910, with the NASDAQ up 617 points at 22,635.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Price Erases Recent Gains

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	3 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.50 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.72 Higher
DOW JONES:	1,236 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	641 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$17.92 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 10.75 cents to close at $1.5650 with five loads traded. This is the largest one-day decline since Nov. 11, 2025. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.59 with no loads traded. Fortunately, the dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 70 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are moderately lower due to much of the weakness of blocks already factored in. Contracts are 3-29 cents lower. The butter price declined 2.00 cents, closing at $1.7275 with 17 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 4.00 cents to close at $2.2050 with seven loads traded. This is another new record high. Class IV futures are 2-17 cents higher. Butter futures are 2.22 cents lower to 0.40 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.75 cent lower to 0.15 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.10-2.70 cents lower.