Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cold Storage Report Provides Little Direction

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures closed lower, with Class IV contracts showing the largest losses. Class III traders did not like the steady block cheese price. Class IV traders reacted to the decline in butter and nonfat dry milk. The cold storage reports showed mixed numbers.

MILK:

The outlook for Class III milk prices does not look any better after the July Milk Production report was released on Friday. The September Class III contract is below August. The October contract remains slightly above, with little reason to add further premiums. It may not look any better after the July Cold Storage report was released today. The only bullish aspect of the milk production report was that cow numbers did not increase from June. The cold storage report did not provide any surprises. Class IV futures did not trade until later in the day and then posted significantly lower prices. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined for the second consecutive day, and the possibility that the price had reached resistance.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.57
6 Month:	$16.92
9 Month:	$17.08
12 Month:	$17.22

CHEESE:

The July Cold Storage report showed American cheese inventory declined 11.3 million pounds, totaling 811.5 million pounds. This is right in line with July 2025. Swiss cheese inventory declined 905,000 pounds, totaling 23.6 million pounds, and is 9% higher than a year ago. Other cheese inventory increased 9.8 million pounds, totaling 598.0 million pounds and one% above a year ago. Total cheese inventory totaled 1.433 billion pounds, down 2.4 million pounds from June, but little changed from July 2025.

BUTTER:

Butter inventory declined 10.5 million pounds from June, totaling 321.4 million pounds. This is 3% below a year ago. Butter inventory is declining more slowly than a year ago, resulting in supplies moving closer to that of last year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed up 7.00 cents per bushel at $5.1550, November soybeans closed down 15.25 cents at $12.2425, and December soybean meal closed up $2.80 per ton at $328.60. December Chicago wheat closed up .25 cent at $6.9950. October live cattle closed down $4.33 at $213.60. October crude oil is down $2.05 per barrel at $85.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 140 points at 53,417, with the NASDAQ down 200 points at 25,980.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Update - Nonfat Dry Milk Shows Further Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	9 Higher
SOYBEANS:	10 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.60 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.35 Lower
DOW JONES:	441 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	159 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$2.05 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price remained steady at $1.5275 with 12 loads traded. The barrel cheese price increased 1.00 cent to close at $1.5750 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 70.25 with no loads traded. Class III futures have shown volatility, with the September and October contracts showing a price swing of about 50 cents. Futures contracts are 1--17 cents lower. Trading volume is substantial, with September and October nearly 1000 contracts traded. The butter price declined 1.75 cents to close at $1.4450 with 16 loads traded. There were only 4 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 2.50 cents to close at $1.7750 with 2 loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet traded. Butter futures are 1.17 cents lower to 0.50 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.75 cent lower. Cheese futures are 0.20 -- 1.90 cents lower. Nonfat dry milk futures are 3.65 -- 4.00 cents lower. The July Cold Storage report will be released today.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Found Positive News

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	6 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	10 to 13 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	12 to 14 Higher

MILK:

The July Milk Production report may be the reason for significant trading activity in Class III futures overnight. There was strong volume for an overnight market, with the August and September contracts trading more than 100 contracts. This strength may be the reaction to U.S. cow numbers in July remaining unchanged from June. This may indicate the strong increase in the dairy herd may have run its course. It has been quite some time since cow numbers have not increased from the previous month, and traders are taking note of it. The market will need to prove itself before traders turn bullish. The USDA will release the July Cold Storage report Monday afternoon.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain choppy. Milk output continues to exceed a year ago and cooler weather has allowed milk production to rebound somewhat. Sufficient milk is available for bottling and manufacturing.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain choppy. Manufacturers are building some inventory but also are moving quite a bit to the market. There has been no shortage of offers on the spot market, which has limited the upside price potential. The nonfat dry milk price may have reached a threshold.