Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Class IV Futures Continue to Find Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	6 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Fundamentals in the Class III market remain largely unchanged, as they have been for some time. There is little reason for prices to rise much, as milk supplies are sufficient. There continue to be numerous reports of expansions taking place. Processing facilities that have expanded have opened the door for farms to increase milk production. Although calf prices have decreased somewhat, they continue to provide significant income for the dairy. The USDA will release the August Livestock Slaughter report today. The report may show an increase in dairy cattle slaughter, but that has been offset by higher cow numbers.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price is struggling to find support, with the potential for price to revisit the low. Barrels have held despite the weakness in blocks. However, the price is likely to adjust lower, as it has in the past, to move in line with blocks. Barrels are not used in the Federal Order class price calculations, so it does not make any difference where the price is.

BUTTER:

The bounce in the butter price on Wednesday is likely to be short-lived. However, the positive development is that unfilled bids remaining at the close of spot trading on Wednesday far exceeded the remaining offers. Maybe this will be the beginning of a market shift, and butter will see increasing support.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class IV Futures Move Above $20.00

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

There was a slight reprieve from the bearishness in Class III futures. Trading activity was high in both Class III and Class IV contracts. Class IV futures showed strong gains, with the October and November contracts above $20.00.

MILK:

Trading activity was strong, with the October Class III contract posting over 1,000 trades, followed by November with over 800 contracts traded. Class IV trading activity was unusually high, with contracts traded through September 2027. The October and November contracts moved above $20.00, where they have not been since April 28. The increase in the nonfat dry milk price is relentless, with the spot price either steady or higher for the past 14 consecutive trading days. The August Milk Production report showed higher milk production due to cow numbers being 167,000 head more than a year ago. August was a month with a lot of hot weather, which resulted in milk per cow being one pound below a year ago. Milk per cow may rebound significantly as the hot weather is behind us. This will maintain milk output above a year ago for the rest of the year and possibly longer. USDA will release the August Livestock Slaughter report on Thursday showing the level of culling seen during the month. Even if culling was higher, the increase was offset by higher cow numbers.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$15.89
6 Month:	$16.17
9 Month:	$16.47
12 Month:	$16.71

CHEESE:

Cheese production is steady in most cases. A significant volume of milk is moving to the Southeast from the Midwest to satisfy the general demand from consumers and the increased demand from school accounts. The spot price indicates the supply has not changed much from the previous week, as spot milk prices are flat class to $2.00 above class. The dry whey price moved to the highest level since February 23, 2022, at the close of spot trading.

BUTTER:

The tone of the butter market is somewhat uncertain. Cream supplies are steady and increasing, leaving sufficient supplies available for those who need to purchase for production. Ice cream production is winding down. Butter demand in some areas of the country is termed lackluster and lower than expected at the current low prices. Retail sales should begin to improve as the Fall season is here.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 7.75 cents per bushel at $5.2900, November soybeans closed down 7.50 cents at $13.1800, and December soybean meal closed down $.10 per ton at $370.60. December Chicago wheat closed down 8.75 cents at $7.0850. December live cattle closed up $2.90 at $222.35. November crude oil is up $2.13 per barrel at $92.65. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 352 points at 51,512, with the NASDAQ down 308 points at 26,936.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dry Whey Moves to the Highest Price Since 2022

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	7 Lower
SOYBEANS:	9 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.92 Higher
DOW JONES:	328 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	338 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.29 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price slipped 0.75 cent to close at $1.3575 with 7 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.4525 with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 1.00 cents to close at 79.75 with 2 loads traded. This is the highest dry whey price since February 23, 2022. Class III futures are mixed, ranging from 14 cents lower to 9 cents higher. The butter price increased 2.50 cents to close at $1.3650 with 33 loads traded. Butter may have turned a corner. There were 60 unfilled bids and 10 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 2.50 cents to close at 2.1500 with 6 loads traded. Class IV futures are 1-41 cents higher in active trading. Butter futures are 0.50 cent lower to 1.12 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.25 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.40 cents lower to 0.10 cent higher. Nonfat dry milk futures are 1.67 -- 3.92 cents higher.