Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Class III Milk Price Was $18.82

MILK:

The June Federal Order class prices were announced today. The Class II price was $18.43, down $0.29 from May and down $3.17 from June 2024. The Class III price was $18.82, up $0.25 from May and down $1.05 from June 2024. The Class IV price was $18.30, up $0.17 from May and down $2.78 from June 2024. Milk production has been holding surprisingly well, with output higher than expected in many areas. Dairy farms have advanced significantly in their ability to keep cows cool during hot weather. Many areas have been receiving good rain. The drought monitor map showed that the drought areas are substantially less than they had been a few months ago. This has improved the crop conditions and increased the potential for a substantial crop, which may keep feed plentiful and prices low. The USDA will release the May Dairy Products report on Thursday, which will show the volume of dairy products produced for the month.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.15
6 Month:	$18.49
9 Month:	$18.32
12 Month:	$18.25

CHEESE:

Spot milk in the Central region is running as low as $8.00 under class to $1.00 under. Some plants are looking to reduce their milk supply over the holiday weekend and have offered milk on the spot market. Other plants are looking for more milk to keep plants full to meet their contractual obligations. Cheese demand is good, but not enough to tighten the market at the present time.

BUTTER:

The decline in the butter price today was unexpected, as buyers seemed to have increased their buying interest. However, this may limit the downside, but that may not be without price fluctuations. The Dairy Products report should show butter output in May above that of a year ago due to continued abundant cream supplies.

Outside Markets Summary:

September corn closed up 12.00 cents per bushel at $4.1800, November soybeans closed up 20.75 cents at $10.4800 and December soybean meal closed up $3.20 per ton at $290.80. September Chicago wheat closed up 15.00 cents at $5.6400. August live cattle closed up $1.70 at $212.45. August crude oil is up $2.05 per barrel at $67.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11 points at 33.484 with the NASDAQ up 190 points at 20,393.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese and Butter Prices Retrace

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Higher
SOYBEANS:	16 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.10 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.65 Higher
DOW JONES:	16 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	164 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.21 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell back, ending its brief uptrend. The price declined 4.75 cents, closing at $1.6750 with four loads traded. The barrel cheese price slipped 0.50 cent, closing at $1.72 with three loads traded. Traders seemed to anticipate weakness on Tuesday and their anticipation was rewarded. Class III futures are steady to 33 cents lower, with August posting the greatest loss. The dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 60.50 cents with no loads traded. The butter price declined 2.25 cents, closing at $2.58 with 12 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.50 cents, closing at $1.27 with three loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet been traded. Butter futures are 0.75 to 2.77 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.75 to 3.17 cents higher.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Are Uncertain Over Price Potential

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The pressure on Class III milk futures was a surprise due to higher underlying cash prices on Tuesday. It did not seem as if futures prices were higher than they should have been in relation to cash. It seems traders are not convinced cheese prices will be able to regain the losses during June. However, the recent price bounce should indicate that buying may increase seasonally as they look ahead to increased demand. The limiting factor might be the continued strength in milk production and increasing cow numbers. This should keep sufficient milk available for bottling and manufacturing, eliminating concerns over any supply tightness. Traders will not be too anxious to trade until cash provides direction.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices should see further gains as sellers may not be as willing to move supply to the market, knowing that seasonal buying may improve. The sellers may hold back to see how aggressive buyers will be, similar to what we saw when prices declined in June. Buyers held back as sellers aggressively moved supplies.

BUTTER:

The butter price may slowly trend higher rather than increasing significantly. After a period of consolidation, the uptrend may resume. Domestic demand is steady while international demand remains strong.