Friday Closing Dairy Market Udpate - Lower Futures May Be Temporary

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures closed under pressure despite steady to higher spot prices. Traders seem to have moved into the realm of creating more volatility and contrary trading. Nonfat dry milk continues to see exceptional strength.

MILK:

It has been an exceptional week for milk futures despite the underlying spot prices generally increasing throughout the week. It seems that traders have found that trading contrary to the movement of the underlying cash can reap significant benefits. Futures have been pushed outside the correlation to the movement of spot prices. This volatility increases the potential to scalp the market for greater profits. Higher futures prices have improved the outlook for milk prices for the year. Contracts have returned a good amount of gains realized this week, even with the decline today.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.57
6 Month:	$17.09
9 Month:	$17.37
12 Month:	$17.41

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks jumped 11.00 cents with 51 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.4315. Barels increased 5.00 cents with no loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.4240. Dry whey declined 2.00 cents with three loads traded. The weekly average price is 72.60 cents. The block cheese price increased each day this week as buyers remained aggressive and willing to purchase at higher prices.

BUTTER:

For the week, the butter price jumped 15.00 cents with 21 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6375. The price moved to the highest since Oct. 3, 2025. The Grade A nonfat dry milk price jumped 18 cents with three loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.5475. The last time the price had a similar move was in 2012. This is the highest price since July 29, 2022.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

March corn closed down 4.75 cents per bushel at $4.3025, March soybeans closed up 3.00 cents at $11.1525, and March soybean meal closed up $.40 per ton at $303.60. March Chicago wheat closed down 5.50 cents at $5.2975. April live cattle closed up $1.65 at $237.25. March crude oil is up $0.22 per barrel at $63.51. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,207 points at 50,116, with the NASDAQ up 491 points at 23,031.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Dairy Futures Fall Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	6 Lower
SOYBEANS:	2 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$3.00 Higher
DOW JONES:	1057 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	427 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.86 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

It is another one of those head-scratching days as futures move in the opposite direction of what the cash market would suggest. The strength of block cheese and nonfat dry milk should provide support. The block cheese price increased 0.50 cent to close at $1.4725 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.44 with no loads traded. The large number of unfilled bids that remained on Thursday were nowhere to be found today. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 73.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 1 to 37 cents lower. The butter price remained unchanged at $1.17 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk jumped 4.00 cents to close at $1.64 with one load traded. This is the highest price since July 29, 2022. Class IV futures are 25-65 cents lower. Butter futures are 4.77 cents lower to 0.02 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.55 cent lower to 0.30 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.10 to 4.00 cents lower.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Strength Expected Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	3 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	10 to 30 Higher
Butter Futures:	2 to 3 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures certainly found support in recent weeks as underlying cash came to life. Class III futures moved to the highest level since early September, with Class IV futures at the highest level since early August. This has been an incredible counter-seasonal move and one that was completely unexpected. The current fundamentals do not suggest a change in trend of this magnitude. Milk production remains strong, with dairy product production outpacing that of a year ago. We hope demand will improve significantly, but there has been no solid evidence of that.

CHEESE:

Even though the cheese price has increased, it remains relatively low and is still a good buy for those who need it to fill orders and build inventory. There may be a level at which the market will plateau, but it is uncertain when buyers will be satisfied. Cheese is readily available for demand.

BUTTER:

The high volume of unfilled bids remaining in the spot market at the close of trading on Thursday suggests further price strength Friday. Buyers seem to be leapfrogging over each other to obtain supplies, creating a buying frenzy that is bringing more buyers in from the sidelines.