Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Follow-Through Weakness May Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	8 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures:	7 to 9 Lower

MILK:

Overnight trading showed moderate activity, with trading confined to the May and June Class III contracts. Follow-through weakness provides the impression of further pressure Thursday. The market environment is such that even minor movement in the underlying cash results in a substantial movement in futures. Sometimes, the market moves in the opposite direction from what cash would indicate, depending on the movement of futures leading up to that time. What is clearly evident is prices will have limited upside potential in the current market environment. USDA will release the March Agricultural Prices report Thursday afternoon, providing most of the prices used for calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The average soybean meal price will not be released until Friday.

CHEESE:

The weakness in the block cheese price on Wednesday may have buyers holding back Thursday to see whether sellers will remain aggressive. If the recent pattern holds, the prices may move back to the lows of the range again.

BUTTER:

There is concern butter price may move below the previous low again as sellers remain aggressive. Lower inventory is meaningless with production remaining strong, providing sufficient supply for demand.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - April Class III Milk Price is $16.82

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures took a beating, posting substantial losses. Nearby Class III futures fell back to the lowest levels they have been since April 9, significantly impacting the bullish attitude that had developed. The April Federal Order class prices increased from March.

MILK:

Milk futures took a beating, posting large declines. The June Class III contract moved within a penny of the limit down at one point during the afternoon. Trading volume was moderate, with the May and June contracts showing the greatest activity. Futures gave up quite a bit of hard-earned gains. Class IV futures posted similar losses throughout the rest of the year. The block cheese price neared buyer resistance of the previous high price and retreated as buyers stepped back. The spot butter prices followed the pattern of falling back after an increase of a few days. The April Federal Order prices were released today with a Class II price of $18.82. This is an increase of $1.48 from March, but a decrease of $0.40 from April 2025. The Class III price is $16.82. This is an increase of $0.66 from March, but a decrease of $0.66 from a year ago. The Class IV price is $20.22. This is an increase of $1.28 from March and an increase of $2.30 from April 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.59
6 Month:	$18.24
9 Month:	$18.21
12 Month:	$18.09

CHEESE:

The block cheese price did not decline very much, but the disappointment of traders was very evident, resulting in substantial pressure on the market. There is concern that the weakness today may result in buyers being less aggressive on Thursday, with some moving to the sidelines in the near term. Spot milk prices have strengthened with reports of $3.00 under class to class. Increased manufacturing capacity has resulted in lower spot milk availability. However, milk supplies remain sufficient for demand.

BUTTER:

Butter production is strong due to plentiful milk and cream supplies. Manufacturers continue to offer supplies on the spot market at whatever prices they can receive. There is no desire or need to hold onto supplies to build inventory for later demand. Butter production is expected to remain strong throughout the rest of the year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.7775, July soybeans closed up 7.75 cents at $11.9700, and July soybean meal closed down $3.60 per ton at $323.80. July Chicago wheat closed down 4.75 cents at $6.5300. June live cattle closed up $1.75 at $255.25. June crude oil is up $8.05 per barrel at $107.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 280 points at 48,862, with the NASDAQ up 9 points at 24,673.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cash Prices Drop

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$7.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$4.20 Higher
DOW JONES:	312 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	47 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$6.61 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 2.25 cents, closing at $1.63 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6150 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 70.75 with no loads traded. Class III futures are steady to 56 cents lower. The butter price declined 4.50 cents, closing at $1.65 with 23 cents traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.75 cent to close at $2.2575 with four loads traded. This is the first price decline in 17 consecutive trading days. Class IV futures are 48 cents lower, with trading taking place in only the June and August contracts. Butter futures are 1.77-6.20 cents lower. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.60 cents lower. Cheese futures are .20-3.60 cents lower. The April Federal Order class prices will be announced today.