Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Overnight Volatility

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 3 Higher

MILK:

The weakness of milk futures on Monday may have been indicative of what could take place this week. Futures adjusted to the underlying cash, with minor strength in block cheese and nonfat dry milk having no influence on price support. Milk production is improving seasonally as the spring flush gears up. This is not expected to overwhelm the market, but will keep sufficient milk available for demand. The potential for higher milk prices as the year progresses will keep farmers pushing milk production to take advantage of the higher prices. The demand for beef-on-dairy calves continues to increase, adding a sufficient income to the bottom line of the operations. Tuesday is the last day to trade March dairy futures and options.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price has decreased to the uptrend line and will need to regain the recent loss, or the price could move into a sideways pattern. The latter is likely as cheese production increases due to increasing milk receipts at the plant level.

BUTTER:

The butter price may continue to chop sideways with buyers and sellers content to take care of business at the current level. Easter demand has been filled and regular demand will need to increase to renew an uptrend in the price. Manufacturers continue to offer supplies to the spot market, satisfying buyer demand.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - February Agricultural Prices Increase

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures closed lower with more weakness seen in Class IV futures. The price swings in Class III futures were significant in the closer months as overnight trade was active. The February Agricultural Prices report was released and showed an increase in all prices used in the calculation of income over feed.

MILK:

Class III futures had quite the price swings in the closer months, beginning with substantially higher trade in the overnight session. The March contract had a range of $0.91. This volatility has never before happened in the nearby contract, with only two days of trading remaining. The April contract moved in a $0.70 range. The May contract moved in a $0.41 range. In the end, most contracts closed lower. Class IV futures were under pressure despite a steady butter price and an increase in nonfat dry milk. The February Agricultural Prices report showed an average corn price of $4.11 per bushel, up $0.01 from January but down $0.47 from February 2025. The Supreme/ premium hay price was $229.00, an increase of $3.00 per ton from January and down $14.00 per ton from February 2025. The All-milk price was $18.30 per cwt. This was an increase of $0.80 per cwt from January, but down $5.30 per cwt from February 2025. The average soybean meal price will be released on Tuesday by the FSA to provide the prices needed to calculate income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. Other prices to take note of are the alfalfa hay price for February, which was $152 per ton, an increase of $3.00 per ton from January, and was $2.00 per ton lower than a year ago. The average soybean meal price was $10.60 per bushel, up $0.30 from January and up $0.40 from February 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.02
6 Month:	$17.77
9 Month:	$18.10
12 Month:	$18.01

CHEESE:

The increase in the block cheese price had little influence on Class III futures. There is uncertainty about the upside price potential as milk output increases and cheese supplies remain sufficient for demand.

BUTTER:

Butter output is higher than a year ago, but inventory has not been able to reduce the deficit of a year ago. Strong demand is keeping inventory from building significantly. This will support the market, but increased production may limit the upside price potential.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed down 6.25 cents per bushel at $4.5575, May soybeans closed up .50 cent at $11.5975, and May soybean meal closed down $.40 per ton at $314.90. May Chicago wheat closed 2.00 cents at $6.0700. June live cattle closed up $1.43 at $240.20. May crude oil is up $3.24 per barrel at $102.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 50 points at 45,216, with the NASDAQ down 154 points at 20,795.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Fail After Significant Movement Overnight

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Lower
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.50 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.82 Higher
DOW JONES:	101 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	132 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$3.93 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.50 cents to close at $1.5975 with 10 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5650 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 69.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 17 cents lower to 5 cents higher. The butter rice remained unchanged at $1.8250 with no loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.75 cent to close at $1.9300 with two loads traded. Class IV futures are 12-21 cents lower with trading confined to the May, June and July contracts. Butter futures are steady to 4.00 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.22 cent lower to 1.02 cents higher. Cheese futures are 1.10 cents lower to 0.30 cent higher. USDA will release the February Agricultural Prices report this afternoon.