Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Will NDM Make New Contract Highs?

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Nonfat dry milk rallied Monday after last week's disappointing close on Friday, with Monday's high 2.55 cents away from the contract high set previously in October. NDM production was 129 million pounds on the latest Dairy Products report, 3.8% above September 2025 and 0.2% above August. However, prices have been increasing week-over-week across all regions for both low/medium heat and high heat.

MILK:

Class III futures traded higher in the deferred months on Monday while the nearby November contract saw small losses. Near Monday afternoon's final bell, Class III was 3 cents lower to 20 cents higher. Milk supplies are varied across the country this week. The East has been tight, the Central region steady and California increasing. The biggest change from last week is the Pacific Northwest region is struggling with reduced production due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza affecting some herds across the region.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.10
6 Month:	$17.07
9 Month:	$17.19
12 Month:	$17.34

CHEESE:

Cheese futures were higher Monday on deferred contracts while the November futures month was unchanged Monday afternoon. End of day trade was unchanged to 2 cents higher. Holiday demand is supporting markets although grocery store advertisements were reduced week-over-week. While cheese is still the number one conventional product in advertisements nationwide, there was a drop of 17% from the previous week. From last week's Dairy Products report, September total cheese production was 0.7% above last year but 2.5% below August.

BUTTER:

Butter futures followed a similar pattern of Class III and Cheese futures with the nearby weaker than the deferred, but there was a bigger separation with the strength not until February. On Monday afternoon, markets varied from 0.975 cents lower to 0.7 cents higher.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.3925, January soybeans closed down 5.50 cents at $11.8825 and December soybean meal closed up $1.50 per ton at $320.70. December Chicago wheat closed down 3.25 cents at $5.8800.

December live cattle closed up $2.15 at $216.20. December crude oil is down 3.96 per barrel at $86.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1104 points at 52,389 and the NASDAQ is up 673 points at 25,253.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Futures Trading Higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	5 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.15 Higher
DOW JONES:	31 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	385 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$3.11 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased by 0.5 cents to close at $1.5725 with 1 load traded. The barrel cheese price was unchanged to close at $1.70 with no loads traded. Dry whey increased 1 cent to close at 85.0 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are trading 1 cent lower to 22 cents higher. The butter price decreased by 0.5 cents, closing at $1.26 with no load traded. There were 2 bids and 36 offers remaining at the close. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 1.5 cents to close at $2.1825 with 2 loads traded. Class IV futures are unchanged. Butter futures are mixed trading from 0.975 cents lower to 0.625 cents higher. Dry whey futures have not yet traded. Cheese futures are 0.3 to 2 cents higher. Nonfat dry milk futures are 0.3 to 2.7 cents higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trade Quiet; Class III the Only Product Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	0.10 to 0.50 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1.40 to $1.60 Lower
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

Milk supplies are steady week over week. The East has been unseasonably warm, yet production does not seem to be affected. Central milk supplies are steady although spot milk has been less abundant. West supplies are still readily available; however, the Pacific Northwest is suffering from the effects of avian influenza affecting some herds. Nonfat dairy milk (NDM) saw price increases mostly across all regions. For the weekly grocery store activity, conventional total advertisements saw a 3% decrease this week. Organic dairy ads, on the other hand, increased 70%.

CHEESE:

Cheese market conditions were steady to firmer last week. In the East, production is well balanced with demand. There have been some new product launches and holiday promotions to drive demand. In the Central region, milk supplies are steady, but spot availability has tightened as Class I and IV processors increase intake. In the West, milk supplies are balanced as production is steady and export demand is moderate to strong, especially to South Korea. Food service demand is unchanged. Cheese advertisement dropped week over week by 17%.

BUTTER:

Butter demand has increased in the West and is steady in all other regions. Holiday buying is slower than a year ago. Export demand is steady. Some butter manufacturers say export sales are up compared to a year ago. Cream is somewhat tighter and butter production is increasing.